XDA

I have to admit that I hope the announced August 1 start date is a head fake and we start right away.

Labels: Iraq Successes

No one ever seriously thought that President Bush (son) was clever enough to have foreseen that al Qaeda would be drawn into post-Saddam Iraq to be killed in droves by our fine armed forces and our Muslim allies there. The fly-paper effect, as it came to be known, was just an added bonus to our liberation of Iraq through the overthrow of Hitler-lite tyrant Hussein. Looks like this bonus effect is repeating itself in Afghanistan, according to this report.

I can see the thought process: Too hot in Iraq? Move to the cool high mountains of Afghanistan. Meet the eager Marines. (Die in droves).

Money quote:

We have heard reports recently that many of the foreign fighters that were in Iraq have left, either back to their homeland or going to fight in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is now seeming to be more suitable for al-Qaida fighters," said Ambassador Samir Sumaida'ie.

General Petraeus was not quite as sanguine:

They're not going to abandon Iraq. They're not going to write it off. None of that," Petraeus said. "But what they certainly may do is start to provide some of those resources that would have come to Iraq to Pakistan, possibly Afghanistan.

I am nearly giddy with the news. Yes, things could go south under Democratic leadership, but for now, al Qaeda has been nearly defeated in Iraq, what its leaders called the central front, and now some of them are going to die in vain in the strategic cul-de-sac which is Afghanistan. So much for re-establishing the Caliphate.

I never thought we were losing, though for a time I could not say we were winning. Now I know we're winning.

Labels: Iraq Successes, Jihadi War; Afghanistan Front

Remember just a few months ago, when the United States forces were kicking ass in the first part of the surge change in tactics in Iraq, and it became harder and harder to deny that reality, so the Democrats switched from denial to "well, we always said our armed forces would do well (lie), but the surge has failed because the government of Iraq has failed to meet the bulk of the 18 benchmarks?" It was in all the papers. Obama said it. Need I cite more?

Well, now the Iraqi government has met 15 of the 18 benchmarks (and the oil revenue sharing is actually being met by the budget rather than by separate legislation). Porcine, serial military defamer Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) still thinks its only 4 or 5 out of 17. What a buffoon. Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) doubts the report (a Progress Denier).

We're not hearing a lot about the surge's failure due to lack of benchmarks met now, are we? Not hearing much about the gigantic success in Iraq lately, come to think of it. Was the press silent about our victories on Iwo Jima and, ultimately, in the Bulge? Silent in the months before VE and VJ day?

Hmmm? Wonder what's up with that?

Labels: Democratic Defeatism, Iraq Successes

Nevertheless, the speed of Al-Qaeda’s decline in Iraq – not only in the north but throughout the country – has taken many military strategists and observers by surprise.

Labels: Iraq Successes, Yellowcake

In a stunningly upbeat article on the success of the 'surge' change in tactics in Iraq, titled The Iraqi Upturn, the liberal icon Washington Post puts the ball squarely back in Senator Obama's court. Witness:

THERE'S BEEN a relative lull in news coverage and debate about Iraq in recent weeks -- which is odd, because May could turn out to have been one of the most important months of the war.

Odd? ODD? The bad news from Iraq is over-covered, the success in Iraq is not covered at all. This is the way it's been since about June, 2003. It's not odd at all. Wait, there's more.

While Washington's attention has been fixed elsewhere, military analysts have watched with astonishment as the Iraqi government and army have gained control for the first time of the port city of Basra and the sprawling Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City, routing the Shiite militias that have ruled them for years and sending key militants scurrying to Iran. At the same time, Iraqi and U.S. forces have pushed forward with a long-promised offensive in Mosul, the last urban refuge of al-Qaeda. So many of its leaders have now been captured or killed that U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, renowned for his cautious assessments, said that the terrorists have "never been closer to defeat than they are now."

All true.

Iraq passed a turning point last fall when the U.S. counterinsurgency campaign launched in early 2007 produced a dramatic drop in violence and quelled the incipient sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites. Now, another tipping point may be near, one that sees the Iraqi government and army restoring order in almost all of the country, dispersing both rival militias and the Iranian-trained "special groups" that have used them as cover to wage war against Americans.

Careful, the next thing you'll be saying is that we're winning in Iraq. That would contradict all of the Democrat leadership over the last several months, including Barack Obama.

Gen. Petraeus pointed out that attacks in Iraq hit a four-year low in mid-May and that Iraqi forces were finally taking the lead in combat and on multiple fronts at once -- something that was inconceivable a year ago. As a result the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki now has "unparalleled" public support, as Gen.Petraeus put it, and U.S. casualties are dropping sharply. Eighteen American soldiers died in May, the lowest total of the war and an 86 percent drop from the 126 who died in May 2007.

Lovely to hear, and oh yeah, they get to Obama.

If the positive trends continue, proponents of withdrawing most U.S. troops, such as Mr. Obama, might be able to responsibly carry out further pullouts next year. Still, the likely Democratic nominee needs a plan for Iraq based on sustaining an improving situation, rather than abandoning a failed enterprise. That will mean tying withdrawals to the evolution of the Iraqi army and government, rather than an arbitrary timetable; Iraq's 2009 elections will be crucial. It also should mean providing enough troops and air power to continue backing up Iraqi army operations such as those in Basra and Sadr City. When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.

Doomed to defeat? That'll be the day, with the quality of most of our armed forces. And yes, an Obama plan for continuing our success in Iraq would be quite refreshing. I'm not actually holding my breath in anticipation.

On the contrarian front, see what those stuck in the Democratic alternative reality still think, like theater critic Frank Rich, peter principled up to political opinion pieces at the sinking Grey Lady. His succinct take on the what he sees of the "national tragedy," the current situation in Iraq:

Mr. McCain and his party are in denial about this. “Elections are about the future” is their mantra. On “Hardball” in April, Mr. McCain pooh-poohed debate about “whether we should have invaded or not” as merely “a good academic argument.” We should focus on the “victory” he magically foresees instead.

But the large American majority that judges the war a mistake remains constant (more than 60 percent). For all the talk of the surge’s “success,” the number of Americans who think the country is making progress in Iraq is down nine percentage points since February (to 37 percent) in the latest Pew survey. The number favoring a “quick withdrawal” is up by seven percentage points (to 56 percent).

It’s extremely telling that when Gen. David Petraeus gave his latest progress report before the Senate 10 days ago, his testimony aroused so little coverage and public interest that few even noticed his admission that those much-hyped October provincial elections in Iraq would probably not happen before November (after our Election Day, wanna bet?). Contrast the minimal attention General Petraeus received for his current news from Iraq with the rapt attention Mr. McClellan is receiving for his rehash of the war’s genesis circa 2002-3, and you can see what has traction this election year.

Notice that Rich uses popular opinion rather than actual metrics of success to continue his defeatists ideas, and he uses the press' self imposed embargo on good news from Iraq (and the near complete lack of coverage of General Petraeus's latest report) as proof that the present just doesn't matter, that the failure to find WMD 5 years ago is much more important than current success and a relatively secure, Iraqi republic. Not that compelling an argument in my book. It seems more like clinging to the straws of the tiny bit of bad news from Iraq in the cascading torrent of good news.

Labels: Iraq Successes

Labels: Iraq Successes

The Mighty Mahdi Army has vacated Basra and is being rooted out block by block from the sprawling slum called Sadr City in Baghdad by Iraqi troops. Or so say the Strategy Page. Money quote:

The dozen or so factions of the Mahdi Army vary in their loyalty to Sadr, or to political solutions. Several of the Mahdi Army factions are basically criminal gangs masquerading as religious zealots. Sadr denies he is a pawn of Iran, but as Mahdi Army houses are captured, more Iranian weapons and equipment show up, as well as religious propaganda from Iran. Iraqi president Maliki has told Sadr that the offensive would halt if the Mahdi Army surrenders all its weapons, stops attacking, or trying to infiltrate (by joining) the security forces, and hands over members wanted for crimes. So far, Sadr refuses, probably because many of his followers would turn on him if he tried. But Sadr also realizes that the Iraqi soldiers and police are capable, eventually, of grinding the Mahdi Army into nothingness. Another month or so of fighting and the Mahdi Army will be no more.

It doesn't get any better than that.

Labels: Iraq Successes

Note the Brit type salute in the photo. History leaks out in every little detail.

Labels: Iraq Successes

Good guy lefty reader, T, continues to out-gloom Nancy Pelosi telling me that Iraq is an unmitigated disaster and that's all it will ever be. Whoa, not so fast there, kitty cat. We now have proof of the liberal ideal of progress in Iraq (and it's not destruction of al Qaeda there)--legislation. Our source was the New York Times. Money quote:

We are, of course, cheered by the news that representatives from Iraq’s three main ethnic groups — Shiite, Sunni and Kurd — finally saw some benefit in compromise.

For the New York Times regarding Iraq, that's nearly giddy.

Labels: Iraq Successes

Here is what Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said today about what's happening now in Iraq:

Pelosi’s comment came during a discussion of her call for “the redeployment
of our troops out of Iraq.”

Anchor Wolf Blitzer asked: “Are you not worried, though, that all the gains that have been achieved over the past year might be lost?”

“There haven't been gains, Wolf,” the speaker replied. “The gains have not produced the desired effect, which is the reconciliation of Iraq. This is a failure. This is a failure."

Here's what's really happening in Iraq: Although a real war is still going on there, all measures of violence are down and nearly all measures of actual progress (power, water, sanitation, oil pumped and sold, etc.) are up; oh, and Al Qaeda in Iraq is being destroyed.

Extracts from two captured al Qaeda letters--

Abu-Tariq, al-Qaeda leader
“There were almost 600 fighters in our sector before the tribes changed course 360 degrees . . . Many of our fighters quit and some of them joined the deserters . . . As a result of that the number of fighters dropped down to 20 or less.”

“We were mistreated, cheated and betrayed by some of our brothers who used to be part of the Jihadi movement, therefore we must not have mercy on those traitors until they come back to the right side or get eliminated completely.”

Unnamed emir, Anbar province
“The Islamic State of Iraq [al-Qaeda] is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar province. Al-Qaeda’s expulsion from Anbar created weakness and psychological defeat. This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight. "

“The morale of the fighters went down and they wanted to be transferred to administrative positions rather than be fighters. There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organisation.” (Emphasis added)

The single remaining complaint the left has now is that the Iraqi legislature hasn't passed enough legislation to please the liberals here. We constantly hear that from the Democrats. As if legislation is the way to win the war in Iraq. Words on paper don't get it done--it's reducing the will and/or the ability of the enemy to continue fighting. We're accomplishing the latter, in a big way. I know the Democrats are desperate to paint the war in Iraq as a failure and the drowning man clutches at straw, but this is not just their usual pathetic, alternative reality, it is the emblem of the left's easy but false solution to everything--with mere words. It doesn't matter if the words are not coupled with actual effect; all that matters to the left are the words.

For example, President Bill Clinton and most of the Democrats talked the big talk about taking action against Saddam for not keeping up his end of the cease fire agreement. They even passed legislation in 1998 calling for regime change in Iraq. Clinton and most of the senior Democratic Senators (including his wife) said exactly the same things about WMD in Iraq that the current administration said in 2003. But here's the difference, George Bush actually did something. He redeemed the words through action, the actual overthrow of the socialistic, totalitarian regime of Saddam Hussein. He did what the Democrats said they wanted to do and suddenly all the Democrats' words are forgotten and Bush is the idiot chimp who lied and created the worst foreign policy mistake ever, by successfully finishing Gulf War I.

I see. I get the picture. (To quote John Cleese). But the picture is not a favorable one of the left here in America.

Labels: Democratic Defeatims, Iraq Successes

Here's a blog posting about Nancy Pelosi, rapidly becoming irrelevant House Speaker, criticizing on Thursday this week the President's accomplishments in office. Wait, don't tell me--tax breaks for the rich and a Vietnam like quagmire in Iraq. Am I right? Bingo.

"He is the President of the United States already talking about his library -- what is he going to have in the library?" she asked. "A tax cut for the wealthiest people in the country at the expense of the middle class and a war without end that is a total failure?"

(Emphasis added).

I'm going to assume she is talking about Gulf War II in Iraq. We all still remember her counterpart in the Senate, vivacious and affable Harry Reid, saying last April: I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything, as is shown by the extreme violence in Iraq this week.

(Emphasis added).

Is that the truth, have we lost the war? Is it a total failure?

Not according to these stories:

1) The Petraeus Curve in the London Times on line; (Money quote:

All of these attitudes have become outdated. There are many valid complaints about the manner in which the Bush Administration and Donald Rumsfeld, in particular, managed Iraq after the 2003 military victory. But not to recognise that matters have improved vastly in the year since Mr Rumsfeld's resignation from the Pentagon was announced and General Petraeus was liberated would be ridiculous. Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have to appreciate that Iraq is no longer, as they thought, an exercise in damage limitation but one of making the most of an opportunity. The instinct of too many people is that if Iraq is going badly we should get out because it is going badly and if it is getting better we should get out because it is getting better. This is a catastrophic miscalculation. Iraq is getting better. That is good, not bad, news.)

2. Thousands Return to Safer Iraqi Capital at AP; (Money quote:

In a dramatic turnaround, more than 3,000 Iraqi families driven out of their Baghdad neighborhoods have returned to their homes in the past three months as sectarian violence has dropped, the government said Saturday.

[...]

More than four months after U.S. forces completed a 30,000-strong force buildup, the death toll for both Iraqis and Americans has fallen dramatically for two months running. ) and,

3. Iraqi Islamic Party: “Al Qaeda is Defeated” by Michael Yon. (Money quote:

“Al Qaeda in Iraq is defeated,” according to Sheik Omar Jabouri, spokesman for the Iraqi Islamic Party and a member of the widespread and influential Jabouri Tribe. Speaking through an interpreter at a 31 October meeting at the Iraqi Islamic Party headquarters in downtown Baghdad, Sheik Omar said that al Qaeda had been “defeated mentally, and therefore is defeated physically,” referring to how clear it has become that the terrorist group’s tactics have backfired. Operatives who could once disappear back into the crowd after committing an increasingly atrocious attack no longer find safe haven among the Iraqis who live in the southern part of Baghdad. They are being hunted down and killed. Or, if they are lucky, captured by Americans.)

Oh, and this graph too, which seems pretty irrefutable.


There is none so blind as he (or she) who will not see. That's certainly the left on Iraq.

Labels: Democrat Wilful Blindness, Iraq Successes

If you're a Democrat and the Washington Post says you were "simply--wrong." Which is just what the Post said about Hillary Clinton and the other legislators who called into question Gen. Petraeus's credibility and figures last month. As I've said, mere troop casualty numbers don't tell you whether the troops are having success or failing. But this bit is a good detail:

During the first 12 days of October the death rates of Iraqis and Americans fell still further. So far during the Muslim month of Ramadan, which began Sept. 13 and ends this weekend, 36 U.S. soldiers have been reported as killed in hostile actions. That is remarkable given that the surge has deployed more American troops in more dangerous places and that in the past al-Qaeda has staged major offensives during Ramadan. Last year, at least 97 American troops died in combat during Ramadan. Al-Qaeda tried to step up attacks this year, U.S. commanders say -- so far, with stunningly little success.

The evidence of a drop in violence in Iraq is becoming hard to dispute. Indeed. But who would want to?

Labels: Iraq Successes

Christopher Hitchens, I think, nails it at Slate today on the three fights in Iraq and our success in two of them. Will the stalemate/slow progress in the third doom all action, even the successful, in Iraq? Only if Democrats get real power.

Here's a taste:

There are currently at least three wars, along with several subconflicts, being fought on Iraqi soil. The first, tragically, is the battle for mastery between Sunni and Shiite. The second is the campaign to isolate and defeat al-Qaida in Mesopotamia. The third is the struggle of Iraq's Kurdish minority to defend and consolidate its regional government in the north.

Taking these in reverse order, we can point to Kurdistan as the most outstanding success of the past four years, with its economically flourishing provinces run along broadly secular lines...

On the second front, everything I hear by e-mail from soldiers in Anbar province and some well-attested other reports suggest...that the venomous rabble of foreign murderers and local psychopaths that goes to make up AQM has insanely overplayed its hand, lost all hope of local support, and is becoming even more vicious as its cadres are defeated...One must not declare victory too soon, but if the United States has in fact succeeded in not only smashing but discrediting al-Qaida in a major Arab and Muslim country, that must count as a historic achievement.

Labels: Iraq Successes

No, not the 1-0 soccer defeat of local powerhouse Saudi Arabia, but the fact that two left of center Brookings types have an op-ed in the New York Times which sees (at last) the actual progress that is occurring in Iraq. The title: A War We Just Might Win. I will remind die hard Democrat defeatists who doubt the news and opinions of Mr. O'Hanlon and Mr. Pollack (big time Bush critics) that our source was the New York Times. Money quote:

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

Labels: Iraq Successes

On this day Saddam Hussein's psychopathic sons, Uday and Qusay, were killed in a firefight in Mosul, in northern Iraq. BIH.

Labels: Iraq Successes

Labels: Iraq Successes

As usual, Charles Krauthamer makes a lot of sense about the wobbly Republicans in the Senate (Voinovich, Domenici, Snowe, Lugar, and even Warner) and their seeming to join in with Harry Reid's irrational declaration that the new surge tactics have failed when it is demonstrable that they, having just started, are clearly working. Money quote:

What is not understandable is the vote of no confidence they are passing on Petraeus. These are the same senators who sent him back to Iraq by an 81-0 vote to institute his new counterinsurgency strategy.

A month ago, Petraeus was asked whether we could still win in Iraq. The general, who had recently attended two memorial services for soldiers lost under his command, replied that if he thought he could not succeed he would not be risking the life of a single soldier.

Just this week, Petraeus said that the one thing he needs more than anything else is time. To cut off Petraeus' plan just as it is beginning -- the last surge troops arrived only last month -- on the assumption that we cannot succeed is to declare Petraeus either deluded or dishonorable. Deluded in that, as the best-positioned American in Baghdad, he still believes we can succeed. Or dishonorable in pretending to believe in victory and sending soldiers to die in what he really knows is an already failed strategy.

Labels: Iraq Successes

The X Gens' Ernie Pyle finally posts new information on Operation Arrowhead Ripper (part of the larger Operation Phantom Thunder (bad name!)). He's confirming that most of the al Qaeda in Extremis leadership got away because our brass telegraphed the punch. (That should never happen again). He ends with this hopeful note:

It would be nice to wrap up this dispatch with a neat ending, but accuracy requires this ending be jagged. While typing these last few words, there have been explosions, gunfire, and the sounds of helicopters and jets. The fighting has decreased remarkably over the last few days, but the last pockets have not been cleared, and nobody knows what awaits. So the battle is on and it’s time to get back with the soldiers as they clear Baqubah inch by inch, street by street.

Labels: Iraq Successes

I have been trying to find out what's happening in Baquba all day. Michael Yon posted earlier last week and then fell silent. I hope he's OK. I can find out details of a poor little rich girl's traffic court travails; it seems Fox is going non-stop about some woman being murdered and her husband arrested for it. Like that's news. But there's barely a peep about our biggest offensive in Iraq since the Mission Accomplished banner went up on the USS Abraham Lincoln years ago. Except that al Qaeda already lost by killing fellow Muslims indiscriminately, this could be the Midway of Gulf War II.

I'm not alone in my frustration. Behold Jack Kelly's cogent whine:

Simultaneous offensives are being conducted in another insurgents' rat's nest, Babil province southwest of Baghdad, and in Baghdad neighborhoods where coalition soldiers in the past have been reluctant to go.

Simultaneous offensives are the best way to gain decisive victory over a numerically inferior force, because they prevent the enemy from shifting forces from one front to another. The Union did not prevail in our Civil War until Grant attacked in the East at the same time as Sherman attacked in the West.

Our soldiers are being assisted by former insurgents who have turned against al-Qaida. Unlike the Anbar Salvation Council on which it is modeled, the Diyala Salvation Front isn't strong enough to take on al-Qaida by itself. But the intelligence its members provide could prove invaluable to our troops.

You haven't heard of the Anbar Salvation Council? Maybe that's because our news media have tended to treat good news from Iraq as no news. When Thomas Ricks of The Washington Post reported last September that a senior Marine intelligence officer thought Anbar province had been "lost politically," his story attracted enormous attention from his fellow journalists. Google lists 789,000 references to that one story.

The Anbar Salvation Council, a coalition of 41 Sunni tribes under the leadership of Sheik Abdul Sattar al-Rishawi, has in very short order reversed that situation (if it were ever as dire as Col. Pete Devlin imagined). Al-Qaida has been all but driven out of Iraq's "Wild West." But Google lists only 114,000 mentions of the Anbar Salvation Council. (Paris Hilton has nearly 76 million mentions.)

The Anbar Salvation Council model is spreading. The Diyala Salvation Front was formed in May. More than 10 tribes in Baghdad and its suburbs have banded together to fight al-Qaida, USA Today reported Tuesday.

If Arrowhead Ripper succeeds, al-Qaida in Iraq will suffer a blow from which it may not recover. "In Diyala, both the foreign jihadists and their domestic allies are beginning to feel cornered, with few places left to hide," STRATFOR said.

But if Arrowhead Ripper succeeds, you may not hear much about it. A U.S. victory would be too embarrassing for those in the media who have staked their reputations on defeat.

Al Qaeda has a rough choice when we actually wage war against them. They can stand and die or they can run away like little girls and be seen as the weak horses asses they are. Wow, who could have imagined that all we had to do to win this front of the war was attack the enemy in force? General Petraeus must be a Grant-like genius.

UPDATE: Bill Roggio reported yesterday that everyone is doubting that there will be a big fight, al Qaeda last stand in Baquba. Darn. That means they slipped out easily. Well, if it was easy, anyone could do it. Running away, as I said, has its own problems for al Qaeda.

Labels: Iraq Successes, News Blackout

Faithful reader/commenter, peter b, notes a current lefty meme that where the press and military were calling everyone insurgents or Sunni or Shia militia before, now they call all our enemies al Qaeda. Bob Owens, the Confederate Yankee, has a good reply to this here. Since Arrowhead Ripper is specifically targeting al Qaeda in Extremis in Diyala Province and specifically in Baquba, al Qaeda gets mentioned a lot. It's selective memory, however, to claim the military press releases are exclusively or even mainly attributing the affiliation of the guys we're killing and capturing to al Qaeda. Bob's got the proof.

Labels: Iraq Successes