Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Sometimes I'm Better at Prediction
Here is my post from June 2015 about what would happen to the weather in California during the Winter of 2015/16. Money quote:
And 5 days from the first day of Spring, here are the snowpack and reservoir data.
I was under but still predicted the beginning of the end of the drought and the return of snow to the California mountains. And it was all entirely natural. Not a human produced CO2 molecule involved.
Here are the drought conditions in the US. Still bad in Southern California, Idaho and Montana. Everyplace else is good.
There is a quite good El Nino forming up in the equatorial Pacific so rainfall this Fall and Winter should be better and perhaps good in the whole of California and western Nevada and the Sierra Madre snow pack should be about 70% of normal by the first day of Spring, 2016.
And 5 days from the first day of Spring, here are the snowpack and reservoir data.
I was under but still predicted the beginning of the end of the drought and the return of snow to the California mountains. And it was all entirely natural. Not a human produced CO2 molecule involved.
Here are the drought conditions in the US. Still bad in Southern California, Idaho and Montana. Everyplace else is good.
Labels: Better Prediction than Oscar Best Picture; Beginning of End of California Drought
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 5:18 AM 
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Roger,
Being a climate change denier is an intellectual and scientific dead end. TX received rain which is good. The Greenland icecap is melting at an accelerated rate and Miami is starting to flood. Don't be a Ted Cruz or Jim Imhofe. It will only end in tears.
Tony
Being a climate change denier is an intellectual and scientific dead end. TX received rain which is good. The Greenland icecap is melting at an accelerated rate and Miami is starting to flood. Don't be a Ted Cruz or Jim Imhofe. It will only end in tears.
Tony
# posted by 
: 1:01 PM
: 1:01 PM
You are mistaken about the Greenland icecap melting. Go to http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ for the truth. The Greenland ice fields have been above average for the past 7 months. Miami floods a little at neap tides and has for a while now. The highest point of land in Florida is about 90 feet above sea level. The average is about 10. There is absolutely no acceleration in sea level rise. Go here http://notrickszone.com/2016/03/24/new-vast-body-of-literature-shows-rates-of-glacier-retreat-sea-level-change-now-significantly-lower/#sthash.D5YoI67q.dpbs and here http://www.c3headlines.com/are-oceans-rising/ for the truth about sea level. The sea level always rises (on average) during an interglacial. It's a sine qua non for interglacials. As soon as it starts going down for an extended period, we're probably in a new ice age. I'm happy if that stays way overdue.
The intellectual dead end is your swallowing the pseudo science whole. The unexamined science is not for men to believe, to paraphrase Plato.
The intellectual dead end is your swallowing the pseudo science whole. The unexamined science is not for men to believe, to paraphrase Plato.
Also, look at the name your ilk has chosen for the suitably skeptical. Climate Change Denier. What could be more telling? I know the climate changes. No rational person denies that. What we do deny is the idea that anyone can predict the weather more than a few weeks away. What we deny is the idea that computer models are evidence. What we deny is that CO2 is in any way a pollutant. What we deny is that the hard to measure additional warming that is the by-product of modern living will be anything close to an ecological Armageddon. The climate changes despite anything mankind does and there is very little we can do to stop it (about as much chance as we have to change it in the first place, which is, as I said, so small it is difficult to measure). Thanks for commenting.
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