Thursday, May 15, 2008
The Isley Brothers' Best Title
Why Computer Climate Models May Not Support Our Full Reliance
We have heard that computer models of climate from now into the future show dire predictions of global warming. Secretary Kempthorne seems to have heard the predictions. We also know that the World is far more complex than the computer models. When the time clock is set back on the models and they predict the last century, for example, they always get it wrong and do not track what is the historical record. Indeed, the models don't rely at all on historical temperature records. And the mistakes are apparently not random, with some mistakes cooler than it was and some warmer, they are almost all warmer.
Sometimes the modeling mistake is 3.5 times what really happened
So of course we should believe them vis a vis the growing population of Polar Bears. No possibility of modeling overstatement there.
Sometimes the modeling mistake is 3.5 times what really happened
So of course we should believe them vis a vis the growing population of Polar Bears. No possibility of modeling overstatement there.
Labels: Global Warming; Disputed Predictions
This Day in the History of Thermonuclear Firsts
On this day in 1957, Britain joined an exclusive club when it tested its first fusion device over Christmas Island in the Pacific due south of Hawaii, called the Grapple series.
The photo shows what occurred within microseconds of detonation,
Labels: Cold War History; Nuclear tests
Thought of the Day
luctantem Icariis fluctibus Africum mercator metuens otium et oppidi laudat rura sui mox reficit rates quassas indocilis pauperiem pati
Horace
The merchant, fearing the Southwest wind wrestling with Icarian waves, praises retirement and rural life in his hometown, but soon he repairs his shattered boat, incapable of enduring poverty.
Horace
The merchant, fearing the Southwest wind wrestling with Icarian waves, praises retirement and rural life in his hometown, but soon he repairs his shattered boat, incapable of enduring poverty.
Labels: Horace quote
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Sometimes You Get the Bear...
It's official; flawed predictions of the future trump actual facts. The Polar Bear is listed as a threatened species because of "declining Arctic Ice." It doesn't matter that there are more bears now, 5 times more bears, than there were in 1950 (The eagle came OFF the list for going from 1,000 to 13,000 in the lower 48). It doesn't matter that the bears are still increasing in numbers over most of their range. It doesn't matter that the Inuit dispute the scientists in Canada who say the bears are declining in northern Manitoba. It doesn't matter that the number of bears are increasing in the areas of greatest warming. Facts, as I said, don't matter. My friend Hugh Hewitt has the story on the meaning of this.
The Arctic probably can't carry 50,000 bears. How in the world will we get North America's greatest predator off the list?
With the swallowing of the anthropogenic Global Warming bunk by McCain and this action by a Republican Administration, we see how much the pseudo- and actual false science has penetrated the minds of too many.
You win this one, Warmies. More's the pity.
UPDATE: Slight mitigation of this horror show here.
UPDATE II: Laer at Cheat Seeking Missiles, who fights on the front lines of needless government restriction of reasonable development (for humans), puts me back in a sour mood with his closer look here.
Labels: Global Warming; Disputed Predictions; Polar Bears
Good News from Afghanistan
Despite the doom and gloom being spread by the media lately (like the fertilizer it is) that things are about to go way south in Afghanistan, it turns out that the Taliban really doesn't want to come out and play with the Brit, Canadian, Aussie and American troops there. The (Slightly) Dreaded Taliban Spring Offensive has failed to materialize for a second year, even as we continue to seek and kill them.
Behold the Strategy Page's take here. Money quote:
Over half the Taliban in Afghanistan are from Pakistan, for Pete's sake.
Behold the Strategy Page's take here. Money quote:
While some Taliban commanders have tried to develop new tactics to reduce casualties (smaller units of Taliban, and avoiding contact with police and troops), nothing has worked. The Afghan army is larger (76,000 troops) and better trained than last year, and there are more foreign troops. Worst of all, more tribal leaders have sided with the government this year, meaning tribal militias are also ready to fight Taliban moving through previously pro-Taliban territory.
Over half the Taliban in Afghanistan are from Pakistan, for Pete's sake.
The photo is of American Marines laughing at the Taliban during a lull in the fighting near Madrassa, Afghanistan. At highest resolution you see the camera caught the Marine top left in mid-spit.
Labels: Afghanistan; Taliban Spring Offensive
This Day in the History of Real Advances in Medicine
On this day in 1796, English physician Edward Jenner performed the first (kinda) successful vaccination, inoculating an eight-year-old boy, James Phipps, against smallpox by infecting him with the less virulent but related cowpox, thus laying the foundation for modern immunology. We should continue to infect citizens with cowpox, just in case Soviet weaponized smallpox falls into the hands of terrorists.
Labels: Edward Jenner, Inoculation
Thought of the Day
recta actio non erit nisi recta fuit voluntas ab haec enim est actio rursus voluntas non erit recta nisi habitas animi rectus fuerit ab hoc enim est voluntas
Seneca
An action will not be right unless the intention is right, for from it comes the action. Again, the intention will not be right unless the habit of thought has been right, for from it comes the intention.
Seneca
An action will not be right unless the intention is right, for from it comes the action. Again, the intention will not be right unless the habit of thought has been right, for from it comes the intention.
Labels: Seneca quote
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The State of the Climate, Late Spring 2008
The sea ice around Antarctica is a million and a half square kilometers more extensive than it was at this time last year, and last year was a record since we've recorded the view of the whole of the Southern Ocean from space. It's about 1.2 million square kilometers above 'normal.' It's growing as the Southern Hemisphere plunges towards Winter.
In the North, the Spring thaw is in progress and the Northern Ocean's sea ice is down from 'normal' about .6 million square kilometers; but seven of the 14 areas the Northern Ocean is subdivided into have more ice than this time last year and three are the same. Four are down. We'll see if this Summer repeats last Summer's record melt. I'd bet against it.
On the sun, there are no spots (although a big flare was observed over the horizon lately), and there have been hardly any for years now. The flux density number from the Canadian Space Agency is 64 point something, about as low as it ever gets, and it's been in the high 60s for weeks.
The reliable satellite measurements of global mean temperature in the lower troposphere (where we live) are just barely above 'normal' having recovered from 2007's near straight line plunge; but neither still has a rising anomaly from the mean temperature between 1979 and 2000.
It was cold here this morning and a mixture of rain and snow. Pretty late for such snow but not unheard of. All the snow packs in the state are above normal. That's good.
Another beautiful Spring/Autumn on our beautiful planet.
Labels: Science; Global Warming
Thought of the Day
longe mea discrepat istis et vox et ratio
Horace
Both my language and my thinking differ widely from theirs.
Horace
Both my language and my thinking differ widely from theirs.
Labels: Horace quote
Monday, May 12, 2008
Good News from Iraq
Bill Roggio recounts the surrender of the Mighty Madhi Army in Sadr City. Whether the peace will last is another matter. I think it helped a bit that they walled off part of the militant slum from the rest of Baghdad.
The two vehicles to the soldier's left are Bradleys with an Abrams to his right in the distance. The near vehicle to the right of the soldier is a mystery to me. Looks like some sort of MRAP, perhaps a MaxxPro.
Labels: Iraq Successes
Hillary's Downfall
NOT SAFE FOR WORK
But funny as heck. Like Woody Allen's What's Up, Tiger Lily? it's just an old movie with new subtitles, but what subtitles. And I liked Downfall, with Bruno Ganz's great impersonation of Hitler during the final days, down to the Parkinson's symptoms in his left hand. The movie has a lot of head shots self inflicted by high ranking Nazis, too. What's not to like? Would that Hillary stick it out to the end in some bunker in Denver.
Don't Fear the Reaper
The future of Aerial Warfare, the MQ-9 Reaper.
See the two smart bombs (GBU-12 Paveway II or GBU-38 Joint Direct Attack Munitions)? It can also carry four AGM-114 Hellfire missiles on the wings.
This will be the plane skynet uses to mop up the surviving humans after the nuke strikes.
We only have 10, so far, and they are 10 months deployed in Afghanistan.
Labels: MQ-9 Reaper
The Grandeur of Nature
This is the Chaiten volcano in Chile erupting. Apparently, just as ice crystals dropping through clouds can generate enormous electrical charges which discharge catastrophically, so too can the friction of ash and cinders in the air. Or so I would conclude from the image.
From a little farther away, the cloud of ash has its own beauty.
Labels: Chaiten images
The Moon and Mercury
Actually, if we could see the surface details of Mercury, it would look remarkably like the Moons, without the lava flow 'seas' of course.
Funny how even the most mundane of images can be so beautiful.
Labels: Mercury and Moon
Yuto Miyazawa - 8-Year Old Japanese Guitar Phenom!
The guitar is bigger than he was. I didn't know the first and last song, but he does a pretty good version of the Clapton version of Crossroads. If his career has the normal arc of an American rock guitarist he'll be staging a comeback, after beating heroin, at age 14. Still sings like an 8 year old.
This Day in the History of Early Cold War Battles Won
On this day in 1949, the Soviet Union announced an end to the Berlin Blockade and on that day allowed normal land communications between western Europe and the city to resume. The Berlin airlift, bringing supplies into the western sections of Berlin, the once and future capital of Germany (which was blockaded by the USSR beginning on June 24, 1948), ended after 277,264 flights. Take that, Commies.
Labels: Cold War History; Berlin Airlift
Thought of the Day
adeone homines immutari ex amore ut non cognoscas eundem esse
Terence
That a person should be so changed by love as not to be know again as the same person?
Terence
That a person should be so changed by love as not to be know again as the same person?
Labels: Terence quote
Sunday, May 11, 2008
A Disgusting Sight
103 year old Morley Safer kissing the very substantial butt of never was that great actor Alec Baldwin tonight. Morley called him one of the more interesting actors of his generation. Yeah, if by interesting you mean his acting range is basically limited to narcissistic louts. He was good in Beetle Juice, Heaven's Prisoners and Malice, OK to passable in Hunt for Red October and State and Main and probably Glengary Glen Ross (never saw it, probably never will). But consider the stinkers: The Shadow, Mercury Rising, Adventures of Pluto Nash, Pearl Harbor, and Cat in the Hat. Then there are the cartoon and TV triumphs--Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends, Clerks (cartoon version), SpongeBob SquarePants Movie and the last of a dying breed, a TV sitcom, 30 Rock. Yeah, a great actor. Hasn't anyone at 60 Minutes seen Team America?
It didn't end there, more's the pity.
The guy is a poli sci drop-out from safety school George Washington U in DC, for Pete's sake, who finished with a BA from dumb ass NYU, in drama, wow! quite a stretch for a Hollywood actor, at age 35. Impressive grasp of the issues like animal 'rights' and the 'arts'. Yeah, and he translates the Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus into Middle Sanskrit for fun on weekends. 60 Minutes producers must think we'll believe anything they say. At best he's a self absorbed lefty 'thinker' with 950 SATs and a 2.5 gradepoint average, who looked pretty good in his youth and was good at the pretending.
Not through yet, over at the creaking with age CBS flagship show.
I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. I'm OK, now. (Although Morley said it, that was Baldwin doing the neither clever or accurate name calling this time).
The real irony here is that they are taking this never was actor seriously. People in the real world think he is a joke, and a pretty sad one at that. We watch him now with the same fascination rubes watch the Geek act in sideshows--we can't believe he really bites the head off the remnants of his once promising career.
I personally can't get past that he criticizes the President and Vice President in the same way he speaks to his 12 year old daughter (or 11 years old, he seemed unsure on the phone message), whom he called a "thoughtless little pig" (et al.) What a great guy! Well worth praising far beyond his deserving on neither relevant nor cutting edge 60 Minutes. If I were an actor still trying to get work, I would move Heaven and Hell not to be so showcased there. It is the death of any vestige of cool.
It didn't end there, more's the pity.
Gross me out. Mr. Eloquence had a little trouble there identifying his 'oppressors.' Part of the true gift, no doubt.
And yet it's his off-screen performances that can get in the way of a truly gifted man, and often it's his liberal politics that make him red meat for his critics.
"They hate liberals who can throw a punch," Baldwin tells Safer.
Asked who "they" are, Baldwin says, "They, yeah, this…they. The vast right wing conspiracy that's after me."
Liberal politics has always been his passion. He grew up in a working class family on Long Island, N.Y. He has an impressive grasp of the issues, and spends a huge amount of his time and money supporting causes he believes in, like animal rights, the environment, and the arts.
The guy is a poli sci drop-out from safety school George Washington U in DC, for Pete's sake, who finished with a BA from dumb ass NYU, in drama, wow! quite a stretch for a Hollywood actor, at age 35. Impressive grasp of the issues like animal 'rights' and the 'arts'. Yeah, and he translates the Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus into Middle Sanskrit for fun on weekends. 60 Minutes producers must think we'll believe anything they say. At best he's a self absorbed lefty 'thinker' with 950 SATs and a 2.5 gradepoint average, who looked pretty good in his youth and was good at the pretending.
Not through yet, over at the creaking with age CBS flagship show.
But his bare-knuckled approach to political discourse has made him an easy target for conservative junkyard dogs like Sean Hannity. (That's Morely doing the name calling).
Your eloquence, if that’s the word, can get you into deep trouble," Safer remarks.
"So I don't make the eloquent point so eloquently, is that what you're saying?" Baldwin asks.
"Or you make them perhaps excessively eloquent, as in your description of Dick Cheney, who you said was a sociopath and a terrorist. And you later apologized by just calling him a lying, thieving oil whore and a murderer of the U.S. Constitution," Safer replies.
I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. I'm OK, now. (Although Morley said it, that was Baldwin doing the neither clever or accurate name calling this time).
The real irony here is that they are taking this never was actor seriously. People in the real world think he is a joke, and a pretty sad one at that. We watch him now with the same fascination rubes watch the Geek act in sideshows--we can't believe he really bites the head off the remnants of his once promising career.
I personally can't get past that he criticizes the President and Vice President in the same way he speaks to his 12 year old daughter (or 11 years old, he seemed unsure on the phone message), whom he called a "thoughtless little pig" (et al.) What a great guy! Well worth praising far beyond his deserving on neither relevant nor cutting edge 60 Minutes. If I were an actor still trying to get work, I would move Heaven and Hell not to be so showcased there. It is the death of any vestige of cool.
Labels: Alec Baldwin; 60 Minutes
Test
Lame After the Fact Light Posting Excuse
I got up very early Saturday to drive though a Spring blizzard over Berthoud Pass to the shooting range near Hot Sulpher Springs up past where you can walk across the Mighty Colorado River and not get your feet wet. So no blogging.
At the range I did well (consistent, not accurate) with the Ruger 10/22 in 22 mag. I also did well, accurate OK tight grouping, with the Remington in 300 Weatherby magnum. But the beautiful gun, the thousand dollar plus Colt Saur in 300 Winchester magnum, continues to be mystery to me. I won't accuse it of a wandering zero, but it was 8 inches low at the start and the accurate group at the end at 200 yards could not have been covered with a dollar bill. I would say that's OK but for my hunting buddy Gary who gets near quarter covered groups with his 150 dollar Savage in 30.06 and with his Safari grade 2 BAR in 7 mm magnum.
Since we're reloading our ammo, we can't blame it (I can't) without damning my reloading ability.
Also, I'm heeling my pistol shooting. It might be that the Glock 19 has a trigger pull weight I'm not used to. In any event, my shooting skills are rusty at best and I need much more range time.
At the range I did well (consistent, not accurate) with the Ruger 10/22 in 22 mag. I also did well, accurate OK tight grouping, with the Remington in 300 Weatherby magnum. But the beautiful gun, the thousand dollar plus Colt Saur in 300 Winchester magnum, continues to be mystery to me. I won't accuse it of a wandering zero, but it was 8 inches low at the start and the accurate group at the end at 200 yards could not have been covered with a dollar bill. I would say that's OK but for my hunting buddy Gary who gets near quarter covered groups with his 150 dollar Savage in 30.06 and with his Safari grade 2 BAR in 7 mm magnum.
Since we're reloading our ammo, we can't blame it (I can't) without damning my reloading ability.
Also, I'm heeling my pistol shooting. It might be that the Glock 19 has a trigger pull weight I'm not used to. In any event, my shooting skills are rusty at best and I need much more range time.
Labels: personal history
Friday, May 09, 2008
This Day in the History of Great Political Cartoons
On this day in 1754, the first American newspaper cartoon was published, the famous illustration by Benjamin Franklin in his Pennsylvania Gazette shown here. I would have made Virginia the head, though, because that was where most of the brains were.
Labels: American Revolution pre-history
Thought of the Day
hoc patrium est potius consuefacere filium sua sponte recte facere quam alieno meto
Terence
This falls to the father, to accustom his son to do right of his own will rather than from fear of consequences.
Terence
This falls to the father, to accustom his son to do right of his own will rather than from fear of consequences.
Labels: Terence quote
Thursday, May 08, 2008
This Day in the History of Losing Battle After Battle Until the War is Won
On this day in 1864, two days after the Union defeat in the Wilderness, Union forces numbering approximately 100,000 under General Grant and General Meade (never a good idea) attacked Confederate forces numbering approximately 52,000 under General Lee near the Courthouse in Spotsylvania County, north of Richmond. The battle lasted until May 21, 1964 and is called a Confederate victory because they blocked Grant's advance to Richmond, didn't get overwhelmed and annihilated and imposed more casualties on the North than they took. However, the North had more men and could take such casualties while the South could not over the long haul. Much of the fighting was done from trenches and Union forces broke through the Confederate trench line. But in a successful counter-attack on May 12, in what is often called the most intense fighting of the war, they regained much of the lost ground through hours and hours of bayonet fighting because it was raining and the powder got wet and because there was often just no time to reload.
Labels: Spotslyvania Court House; American Civil War
Thought of the Day
ira furor brevis est animum rege qui nisi paret imperat hunc frenis hunc tu compesce catena
Horace
Anger is a brief madness; control your temper; for unless it obeys, it commands you; restrain it with bit and chain.
Horace
Anger is a brief madness; control your temper; for unless it obeys, it commands you; restrain it with bit and chain.
Labels: Horace quote
