Thursday, August 26, 2010
Political Predictions
Let's hope I'm better at this than predicting judicial decisions.
The consensus among the Republicans is that we take the House back in November and get 6 or 7 in the Senate. I'll be a little more precise. I'm using InTrade Prediction Markets as an aid.
In the Senate, we Republicans take back one seat in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania almost for sure. I hope we beat Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. California, Washington, Wisconsin and Connecticut are outside chances but not likely. We'll keep the Republican seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio and will improve on some of our RINOs in the Senate there. No current Republican seat will switch to Democrat. So that's 48, 49 Republican Senators in January, 2011--not a Senate takeover but close.
In the House, Republicans will gain 45 seats, plus or minus 3, so that's a takeover and Speaker of the House Boehner.
Here in Colorado, it's looking like an incredibly hard climb to escape Governor Hickenlooper but I won't yet say it's in the bag for him. We should keep the seats in the 5th and 6th Districts (Lamborn and Coffman) and should definitely pick up the 4th (Markey) and just possibly the 3rd and 7th (Salazar and Perlmutter). Nothing else will change near the top of the ticket.
Here's an opposing view from Reid Wilson, a person unknown to me:
How many House seats are there in "won't come close to gaining the 39 seats"? 35? 30?
The average loss in the first midterm elections after a new president is 36. With the economy hurting and Democratic actions only making it worse; with insane levels of Democratic spending and borrowing; with twice as many Republicans turning out for the primaries in Florida as Democrats; and, with the generic ballot at plus 4.5 on average for Republicans (reliable Rasmussen has it at 9), do the Democrats really think they can hold the losses to just about the average or less? Fat freakin' chance.
Time of course will tell. If I'm right, however, I will remind people of my 'genius' for prediction as it is the hardest thing to do, see what you cannot see.
The consensus among the Republicans is that we take the House back in November and get 6 or 7 in the Senate. I'll be a little more precise. I'm using InTrade Prediction Markets as an aid.
In the Senate, we Republicans take back one seat in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania almost for sure. I hope we beat Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. California, Washington, Wisconsin and Connecticut are outside chances but not likely. We'll keep the Republican seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio and will improve on some of our RINOs in the Senate there. No current Republican seat will switch to Democrat. So that's 48, 49 Republican Senators in January, 2011--not a Senate takeover but close.
In the House, Republicans will gain 45 seats, plus or minus 3, so that's a takeover and Speaker of the House Boehner.
Here in Colorado, it's looking like an incredibly hard climb to escape Governor Hickenlooper but I won't yet say it's in the bag for him. We should keep the seats in the 5th and 6th Districts (Lamborn and Coffman) and should definitely pick up the 4th (Markey) and just possibly the 3rd and 7th (Salazar and Perlmutter). Nothing else will change near the top of the ticket.
Here's an opposing view from Reid Wilson, a person unknown to me:
...senior Democratic strategists say they're not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won't come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.
How many House seats are there in "won't come close to gaining the 39 seats"? 35? 30?
The average loss in the first midterm elections after a new president is 36. With the economy hurting and Democratic actions only making it worse; with insane levels of Democratic spending and borrowing; with twice as many Republicans turning out for the primaries in Florida as Democrats; and, with the generic ballot at plus 4.5 on average for Republicans (reliable Rasmussen has it at 9), do the Democrats really think they can hold the losses to just about the average or less? Fat freakin' chance.
Time of course will tell. If I'm right, however, I will remind people of my 'genius' for prediction as it is the hardest thing to do, see what you cannot see.
Labels: Political Predictions; Midterm Elections
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 11:40 AM 
