Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Reasonably Good News
The Democrats have huge majorities in both houses of Congress. There is nothing the Republicans can do to stop any bill, as long as the Democrats stay united. There are, however, plenty of fractures in the Democratic Party, the so called Blue Dog/Yellow Dog being just one of the better known divides. There are plenty of Democrats who hold their office despite the fact their state or district went for Bush in '04 and McCain in '08, so those guys and gals who are looking at auguries for what will happen just over a year from now, might not be so willing to tow the Democratic line regarding unpopular bills if they know that such a vote will hang albatross-like around their necks when they toe the line regarding re-election next November.
And what might these auguries be? Well, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia (and possibly the special election of a Representative in the 23rd district in New York--although that one might tell a different story). The Virginia election is a done deal. The Republican candidate will win that. The New Jersey election was, for a long while, about the same, with much disliked but rich Gov. Corzine (D) trailing badly; but then the third party guy, Daggett, did well in a recent debate and it all seemed to shift back to the incumbent Corzine. His poll numbers peaked at a plus 3, and his numbers at Intrade Prediction Markets got to about 75, a near lock.
But hold on there, kitty cat. Take a look at these numbers: At Intrade, Corzine is just over 56, having fallen over 16 in a very short time. The newest poll at Real Clear Politics, has the Republican Christie up by 3 and the third party Daggett sliding into insignificance.
The Republican candidate has a fighting chance.
So the Democrats in traditionally Republican seats will have to be very careful about their votes and such internal agita and angst may well doom the rest of President Obama's disastrous legislative agenda.
Quite good news indeed, now that I think of it.
And what might these auguries be? Well, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia (and possibly the special election of a Representative in the 23rd district in New York--although that one might tell a different story). The Virginia election is a done deal. The Republican candidate will win that. The New Jersey election was, for a long while, about the same, with much disliked but rich Gov. Corzine (D) trailing badly; but then the third party guy, Daggett, did well in a recent debate and it all seemed to shift back to the incumbent Corzine. His poll numbers peaked at a plus 3, and his numbers at Intrade Prediction Markets got to about 75, a near lock.
But hold on there, kitty cat. Take a look at these numbers: At Intrade, Corzine is just over 56, having fallen over 16 in a very short time. The newest poll at Real Clear Politics, has the Republican Christie up by 3 and the third party Daggett sliding into insignificance.
The Republican candidate has a fighting chance.
So the Democrats in traditionally Republican seats will have to be very careful about their votes and such internal agita and angst may well doom the rest of President Obama's disastrous legislative agenda.
Quite good news indeed, now that I think of it.
Labels: American Politics; Virginia, New Jersey Gubernatorial Races
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 5:12 PM 
Comments:
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Indeed we need to get back to the GOP national agenda which included tax cuts for the uber rich and a complete lack of regulation which permitted the financial meltdown. I suppose we could throw in a trillion dollar invasion that contributed not one whit or tittle to our national security.
Whereas you make a good point about some Democrats needing to be circumspect about their voting records and the fact the GOP will no doubt pick up seats a few governorships (VA has elected as governor the party not in the White House for the past several decades), on the national level, the GOP remains in a morass which is to be expected if the de facto party spokesmen are Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck.
T
Whereas you make a good point about some Democrats needing to be circumspect about their voting records and the fact the GOP will no doubt pick up seats a few governorships (VA has elected as governor the party not in the White House for the past several decades), on the national level, the GOP remains in a morass which is to be expected if the de facto party spokesmen are Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck.
T
# posted by 
: 9:16 AM
: 9:16 AM
Missed you at the CLE thing yesterday. I realize that we rightwingers are not picking up poll support as the Democrats become ever more unpopular, but we'll definitely be the lesser of two evils in 2010 and 2012. Here are our sine qua non principles: Low taxes; rational spending; strong defense; laws which maximize personal freedom; and, laws and regulations which maximize free enterprise. You continue to believe in a progressive tax structure. That is legal theft and the slow death of the economy in my book. You also believe that lack of regulation caused the latest recession. Recessions always happen. It's the by product of freedom and it's not necessarily bad. Neither Beck or Limbaugh are our leaders although they are popular entertainers in the political comment realm. The only down side of cheering on the Democrats' party suicide pact is the damage they will do the economy slitting their own metaphorical throats. However, we've bailed out the nation after a disastrous President (Carter) before. We can do it again (assuming we have the right leadership which we don't actually have just now). Thanks for the comment.
Not coming to the CLE was a lat minute decision. We left the cars of the road and in mine, the WC pamphlet. I had little doubt that I could get there. I was uncertain whether I could home at the end of the day.
The GOP agenda sounds good. Too bad it is impossible to implement.
Meanwhile, if Rush and Glenn aren't the spokesman for the party, how come no one dares cross them.
Yeah, yeah. Recessions happen. But for the repeal of that portion of the Glass-Steagall Act that prohibited commercial banks from acting like investment banks, the mortgage crisis, which was the cause of the recession, would not have occurred.
And don't state that President Clinton signed the enabling legislation. It was a GOP bill and Congress was veto proof.
T
The GOP agenda sounds good. Too bad it is impossible to implement.
Meanwhile, if Rush and Glenn aren't the spokesman for the party, how come no one dares cross them.
Yeah, yeah. Recessions happen. But for the repeal of that portion of the Glass-Steagall Act that prohibited commercial banks from acting like investment banks, the mortgage crisis, which was the cause of the recession, would not have occurred.
And don't state that President Clinton signed the enabling legislation. It was a GOP bill and Congress was veto proof.
T
# posted by : 8:07 AM
: 8:07 AM
"Meanwhile, if Rush and Glenn aren't the spokesman for the party, how come no one dares cross them."
So, from that description (as inaccurate as it is in the case of Beck and Limbaugh), I assume that you think that Olberman and Sharpton are "the spokesmen for the [Democratic] party"?
Good to know. I'll factor that in when considering the positions of your party.
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So, from that description (as inaccurate as it is in the case of Beck and Limbaugh), I assume that you think that Olberman and Sharpton are "the spokesmen for the [Democratic] party"?
Good to know. I'll factor that in when considering the positions of your party.
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