Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Reasonably Good News
The Democrats have huge majorities in both houses of Congress. There is nothing the Republicans can do to stop any bill, as long as the Democrats stay united. There are, however, plenty of fractures in the Democratic Party, the so called Blue Dog/Yellow Dog being just one of the better known divides. There are plenty of Democrats who hold their office despite the fact their state or district went for Bush in '04 and McCain in '08, so those guys and gals who are looking at auguries for what will happen just over a year from now, might not be so willing to tow the Democratic line regarding unpopular bills if they know that such a vote will hang albatross-like around their necks when they toe the line regarding re-election next November.
And what might these auguries be? Well, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia (and possibly the special election of a Representative in the 23rd district in New York--although that one might tell a different story). The Virginia election is a done deal. The Republican candidate will win that. The New Jersey election was, for a long while, about the same, with much disliked but rich Gov. Corzine (D) trailing badly; but then the third party guy, Daggett, did well in a recent debate and it all seemed to shift back to the incumbent Corzine. His poll numbers peaked at a plus 3, and his numbers at Intrade Prediction Markets got to about 75, a near lock.
But hold on there, kitty cat. Take a look at these numbers: At Intrade, Corzine is just over 56, having fallen over 16 in a very short time. The newest poll at Real Clear Politics, has the Republican Christie up by 3 and the third party Daggett sliding into insignificance.
The Republican candidate has a fighting chance.
So the Democrats in traditionally Republican seats will have to be very careful about their votes and such internal agita and angst may well doom the rest of President Obama's disastrous legislative agenda.
Quite good news indeed, now that I think of it.
And what might these auguries be? Well, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia (and possibly the special election of a Representative in the 23rd district in New York--although that one might tell a different story). The Virginia election is a done deal. The Republican candidate will win that. The New Jersey election was, for a long while, about the same, with much disliked but rich Gov. Corzine (D) trailing badly; but then the third party guy, Daggett, did well in a recent debate and it all seemed to shift back to the incumbent Corzine. His poll numbers peaked at a plus 3, and his numbers at Intrade Prediction Markets got to about 75, a near lock.
But hold on there, kitty cat. Take a look at these numbers: At Intrade, Corzine is just over 56, having fallen over 16 in a very short time. The newest poll at Real Clear Politics, has the Republican Christie up by 3 and the third party Daggett sliding into insignificance.
The Republican candidate has a fighting chance.
So the Democrats in traditionally Republican seats will have to be very careful about their votes and such internal agita and angst may well doom the rest of President Obama's disastrous legislative agenda.
Quite good news indeed, now that I think of it.
Labels: American Politics; Virginia, New Jersey Gubernatorial Races
