Wednesday, January 16, 2019
It's Difficult to Predict Things, Especially About the Future
Here is the NASA prediction for sunspot numbers for Cycle 24 (which we're still in) in June 2008. They thought Cycle 24 would have substantially more sunspots than Cycle 23.
Here is a later prediction from June 2015 when we were actually in Cycle 24. As you can see Cycle 24 was quite a bit lower than Cycle 23 which was itself lower than Cycle 22.
Here is what's called a prediction even later, in 2016. You can see it has very little to do with the 2008 actual prediction.
Here is the bulk of the actual Cycle 23. Kinda puny. My prediction is that it's going to be colder for a while.
The average cracked 80 for a very short time. So the actual prediction before the Cycle began was 80% too high. The science, I can assure you, however, is settled and you're a sunspot denier even to think anything different.
Here is a later prediction from June 2015 when we were actually in Cycle 24. As you can see Cycle 24 was quite a bit lower than Cycle 23 which was itself lower than Cycle 22.
Here is what's called a prediction even later, in 2016. You can see it has very little to do with the 2008 actual prediction.
Here is the bulk of the actual Cycle 23. Kinda puny. My prediction is that it's going to be colder for a while.
The average cracked 80 for a very short time. So the actual prediction before the Cycle began was 80% too high. The science, I can assure you, however, is settled and you're a sunspot denier even to think anything different.
Labels: Sunspot Prediction Abject Failure
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 12:50 PM 
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You gonna do your Oscar picking again this year? I haven't seen any of the movies, haven't even heard of most of them, don't recognize most of the actor names....
Mostly I watch stuff on Prime: my kid recommended "The Night Manager," which started life as a Le Carre book, and Blue Bloods, which was fun. Blacklist got boring after a few seasons when they started struggling for plot lines. Flashpoint kept my interest going with a good cast and the never-ending plot diversity of human distress.
...back to the "shut down" headlines. This morning NPR is all about OMG! SNAP recipients will starve! 'Tis entertaining to watch the Dems trying to cope with a Trump who doesn't play according to the "rules." "Open government and THEN we'll negotiate" isn't persuasive to him: I wonder why. /sarc
Mostly I watch stuff on Prime: my kid recommended "The Night Manager," which started life as a Le Carre book, and Blue Bloods, which was fun. Blacklist got boring after a few seasons when they started struggling for plot lines. Flashpoint kept my interest going with a good cast and the never-ending plot diversity of human distress.
...back to the "shut down" headlines. This morning NPR is all about OMG! SNAP recipients will starve! 'Tis entertaining to watch the Dems trying to cope with a Trump who doesn't play according to the "rules." "Open government and THEN we'll negotiate" isn't persuasive to him: I wonder why. /sarc
# posted by 
: 8:06 AM
: 8:06 AM
I'm watching Counterpoint but it's getting less compelling all the time. True Detective (3) on HBO is very good. I'll pick Oscars but like you, hardly saw any of them.
CounterPART, you mean? That's the only title I found on amazon.
I added it to my amaz. watchlist. I don't have Netflix or whatever else one has to subscribe to, to get movies/series. I'm cheap: I wait for the free on Prime or get disks from my library.
Heh. I'm retired..., I got all the time in the world to wait for my entertainment!
Oh, and I forgot.... I really like Bosch.
Did you happen to see the Jackson documentary, "They Shall Not Grow Old"? What a marvel that was. If not and if it comes around again, don't miss it, including his 1/2 hour add-on where he explains the background & the technology.
PS: speaking about movie fiction, the news this morning is all about the Stone arrest. ...only process crimes in the indeictment --- yet they deploy a SWAT team in the dark morning hours to arrest him? Like he's "not going to be taken alive" kind of plot action?
Oh, and CNN already happens to be on scene? That's a travesty. The guy's sleazy, but c'mon....
I added it to my amaz. watchlist. I don't have Netflix or whatever else one has to subscribe to, to get movies/series. I'm cheap: I wait for the free on Prime or get disks from my library.
Heh. I'm retired..., I got all the time in the world to wait for my entertainment!
Oh, and I forgot.... I really like Bosch.
Did you happen to see the Jackson documentary, "They Shall Not Grow Old"? What a marvel that was. If not and if it comes around again, don't miss it, including his 1/2 hour add-on where he explains the background & the technology.
PS: speaking about movie fiction, the news this morning is all about the Stone arrest. ...only process crimes in the indeictment --- yet they deploy a SWAT team in the dark morning hours to arrest him? Like he's "not going to be taken alive" kind of plot action?
Oh, and CNN already happens to be on scene? That's a travesty. The guy's sleazy, but c'mon....
# posted by : 8:13 AM
: 8:13 AM
Just as an fyi, this came up on Volokh yesterday, with some recommendations.
http://reason.com/volokh/2019/01/23/tv-recommendations#comment
Some years ago, a Brit friend recommended "Happy Valley" with Sarah Lancashire -- about a police force in Yorkshire. I loved it (except for trying to follow the dialogue through the strong dialect.) 'Twas interesting to compare UK and U.S. law enforcement....
https://www.amazon.com/Happy-Valley-Sarah-Lancashire/dp/B010GHYJW6/ref=sr_1_cc_2?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1548429786&sr=1-2-catcorr&keywords=happy+valley+season+1
http://reason.com/volokh/2019/01/23/tv-recommendations#comment
Some years ago, a Brit friend recommended "Happy Valley" with Sarah Lancashire -- about a police force in Yorkshire. I loved it (except for trying to follow the dialogue through the strong dialect.) 'Twas interesting to compare UK and U.S. law enforcement....
https://www.amazon.com/Happy-Valley-Sarah-Lancashire/dp/B010GHYJW6/ref=sr_1_cc_2?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1548429786&sr=1-2-catcorr&keywords=happy+valley+season+1
# posted by : 8:29 AM
: 8:29 AM
Thanks, I'll look for Happy Valley. The Counterpart I'm talking about has J K Simmons in it. The new Jackson flick is opening in 500 theaters in early February. You would think at least one would be in Denver Metro. Really looking forward to that.
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