XDA

Here are the big nine:

Best Picture-- 12 Years a Slave (slightly possible Gravity, less slightly possible, but possible American Hustle)
Best Leading Man-- Matthew McConaughey (slight possibility for Di Caprio to upset here)
Best Leading Lady-- Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor-- Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress-- Lupita Nyong’o (strong chance of Jennifer Lawrence to upset here)
Best Foreign Film-- The Great Beauty (Italy) (most Americans might like Bluegrass but Academy voters don't so the Belgium entry has no chance)
Best Director-- Alfonso Cuarón
Best Screenplay, Original-- Her
Best Screenplay, Adapted--12 Years a Slave

Easy calls:

Cinematography-- Gravity (bet the house)
Documentary Short-- The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (about a Theresienstadt concentration camp survivor who just died last week at 110) (bet the house)
Animated Short-- Get a Horse!
Visual Effects-- Gravity (bet the house)
Original Song-- Let Her Go (Frozen)
Animated Feature-- Frozen

Here are the not that easy rest:

Documentary Feature-- 20 Feet From Stardom (Although The Act of Killing is a better film)
Sound Mixing-- Gravity
Sound Editing-- Gravity (even though there is no sound in space)
Film Editing-- Gravity

Makeup-- Dallas Buyer's Club
Documentary Short-- The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (about a Theresienstadt concentration camp survivor who just died last week at 110) (bet the house)

Here are the  next to impossible to call:

Art Direction-- The Great Gatsby (possibly 12 Years a Slave)
Live Short-- The Voorman Problem
Costume Design-- The Great Gatsby (which proved, again, the great novel is unable to be adapted into a great movie)


I'm glad that Ellen DeGeneres is back and I really hope she doesn't bomb. Let's hope there will be time for more clips.

On, and for the first time I have only seen two of the movies in actual contention--Dallas Buyer's Club and American Hustle, both of which I gave B ratings. You don't have to see the movies to know who the winners will be here, you just have to know the basics and read the liberal critics. The secret: The Oscar competition is not an award show for the best in category but a general Hollywood PR campaign. What film winner puts Hollywood in the best light? Go with that to guide your choices and you will beat the odds.

UPDATE: I left out score. Gravity. Wild ass guess.

Labels: Oscar Predictions