XDA

Here is the Marshall Islands Foreign Minister, Philip Muller, in the Washington Post whining about the past and begging for money because his nation is having a drought, with a money quote:

This month the world reached a milestone that brings all of us to a new danger zone: an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 400 parts per million. The World Bank predicts that we are on track to a rise of 4 degrees Celsius in temperatures by the end of this century. This would mean a rise in sea levels of three to seven feet. For the world’s lowest-lying countries, including my own, this is a death sentence. The only answer is urgent global action, a Marshall Plan for a new low-carbon global economy. And we Marshallese believe we have a big role to play.

Actually we didn't reach 400 ppmv of CO2. It was reported but revisions in the raw data (down for a change) at Mona Loa means we didn't get there and won't until the Fall at the earliest. But why let facts get in the way when you're talking about global warming climate change? (No sane man believes the climate does not change, so the new name is nearly meaningless, but it is merely shorthand for Danger! Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming! and only the low IQ types are fooled).

I'm not sure what scientists work at the World Bank, but few scientists, even the worst of the Alarmists, predict a 4 degree Celsius rise in average temperature by 2100. Below is a graph of what a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere might theoretically achieve.

.5 to 1.8 degrees Celsius. Actually it will be less, because there are in place in the real world negative feedback systems to buffer any rise in temperature caused by greenhouse gasses and reduce them to insignificance.

And below is the chart for sea level rise over the last 140 years. Since 1870, the sea level has risen just over 9 inches (sea level almost always rises during an interglacial). Even if that rate doubles (and there is no reason to believe it will), the rise in 86 and a half years will be 11 inches, less than a third what Mr.Muller claims is the least bad scenario and 13% of his worst case scenario.


Below is what real climate change (coming out of the last ice age) has done to the sea level. After a near 400 foot rise in 14,000 years, the last 8 millennia have been remarkably stable. As soon as the sea level starts to fall consistently, then we are at the end of the interglacial and horrible times are ahead.

Labels: Global Warming; Wildly Exaggerated Claims