Saturday, May 18, 2013


Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

As Yogi Berra once perceptively said, "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." Here is a 2007 prediction about Arctic Sea Ice in 2013. It pretty much said all the sea ice would disappear this Summer. Or if not then certainly by 2030. Here is my shorter term prediction and the reasons supporting it:

On September 20, 2013, Arctic Sea Ice Area will be 4.6 Million square kilometers (about the size of India plus Peru plus Macedonia).

Below are two charts I'm relying on to make that prediction.

Sea Ice Area (as of two days ago)

and Mean Temperature north of 80 degrees North (which is way below normal right now).

Of course a bad storm which breaks up the ice (as happened last year) could change everything (See Yogi quote). But I think it will be safe to say at the end of Summer that the AGW True Believer predictors 6 years ago were full of it (as climate alarmists often are, more's the pity).

Oh, here's an interrupted in mid transmission shot from the robot camera we have at the North Pole. The Sun is out, but it's freakin' cold. The ice stretches over the horizon and is about 8 feet thick there.

I guess it could all melt away this Summer, but the odds are against it.


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