Wednesday, August 29, 2012


Looking at the Electoral College Map

Here is a map of the 2012 election with the probable red and blue states and the 10 or 12 swing states which could go either way. My acquaintance Steve Green made this map over a year ago. Little has really changed. This is what I believe:

There is no doubt that the East Coast north of Virginia and all of New England except New Hampshire will vote for Obama, along with Illinois and the entire West Coast. Alaska and Hawaii will split.

There is also no real doubt in my mind that the South, including Florida and Virginia, are going to go to Romney as well as all of the states west of the Mississippi to the West Coast States, with the exception of Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado. There are many swing states in the upper mid-west but I think we Republicans are kidding ourselves to think we can win all of these four: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. If we win even one of those, the election will almost certainly be Romney's. I think that New Mexico will probably, narrowly go to the President. So the real swing states are New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa. If we lose Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, we probably lose the election.

So let's pretend I and Steve are right. Let's assume that we win Ohio narrowly. Then all we have to do is win one of the four remaining and Romney's at or above 270 and on his way to the White House.

I still like those odds.

I think we might pick up the majority of the four real swing states and perhaps one of the mid-west states touching the great lakes other than Ohio. That would be a comfortable win for the right.


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