Thursday, November 17, 2011


And the Rest of the World Needs Bifocals

Some things that people write makes me wonder how they manage to feed themselves. Of course this moronic mistake is almost certainly the fault of the reporter, Suzanne Goldenberg. Here is the source of the mistake I'm writing about. She wrote:

By the mid-2020s, sea level rise around Manhattan and Long Island could be up to 10 inches, assuming the rapid melting of polar sea ice continues. By 2050, sea-rise could reach 2.5ft and more than 4.5ft by 2080 under the same conditions.
(Emphasis added).

Sea ice floats on the ocean (distinct from ice shelves (kinda) and land based glaciers). It already displaces almost all of its volume so if the ice turns to water (i.e. melts) sea level is no higher. The melting of sea ice has NO measurable effect on sea level. There are 5th graders who know this.

But that's not the end of the nonsense in that paragraph.

According to an on line calculator, 10 inches is 254 mm, and 30 inches (the mid century prediction) is 762 mm, and the 54 inch prediction for 2080 (69 years away) is 1372 mm. So all those predictions put the necessary yearly rise north of 18 mm, nearly 20mm/yr. for the 2080 hysterical prediction. (And these predictions are accurately reported by Ms. Goldenberg).

What's the sea level been doing lately?

The very latest info from the most sophisticated satellite shows a rate of sea level rise just a third of a mm/yr. At that rate it will be July of the year 6168 before we get a 4 and a half feet rise of the ocean's level. Even if we accept the data from the University of Colorado at Boulder (and there are plenty of reasons not to accept it) the rate is no more than 3.3 mm/yr. which means it will be November of 2426 before we get to 4 and a half feet above where we are now.

This level of run-for-the-hills, false data is not a good thing in scientific circles. Getting caught hyping the non-problem destroys the credibility of the whole alarmist crew.

(h/t Steven Goddard at Real Science--he got it from Marc Morano)


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