Saturday, July 30, 2011
The Final Nail
I wrote recently about the recent recreation of the debunking experiment which showed, contrary to the scientific consensus regarding the so called green house gasses, that CO2 doesn't really trap heat in the laboratory like the discoverers of the green house gasses in the 19th Century said it would. I said that news was a hit, a palpable hit, on the Warmie alarmists.
Well, here's an Iowa class battleship 9 gun salvo on the Warmie cause. As measured by NASA satellites over the past decade plus, the atmosphere of our fair planet puts off far more heat, and at a sooner rate, than the Warmie climate models envision. Let's put that in clearer terms. The only thing thatis was saying that we are facing catastrophic warming with a doubling of the CO2 from the pre-industrial 'ideal' of 280 ppm are climate models, which predict 2 to 6 degrees Celsius of additional warming just from CO2 levels approaching 500 ppm (not quite doubling) over the next 88 and 1/2 years. If the models don't accurately now show what is happening, that is, if they don't agree with the measured reality, the models are useless for the future, and there is nothing which causes us to believe in catastrophic global warming. NOTHING.
The models indeed suck and much more heat is escaping than any of them 'predict', thus, there is no warming currently as even Warmie high priests have grudgingly conceded. There was never enough warming from a mere doubling of CO2 possible to alarm the masses and cause them to go all Luddite and joyfully return to the happy, halcyon days of pre-industry. Even in Warmie theory, the most likely change a doubling of CO2 would have caused is a 1.38 degrees Celsius of warming. (See chart). So the Warmies invented a positive feedback mechanism of additional humidity and warming cirrus clouds which would take that 1.38 degrees and multiply it by 1.2 to 4 times. The trouble for the Warmies is that there is no positive feedback mechanism and their models, which depended on it, are bunk.
There may not be a whole lot more to write about on this subject. I'll have to start seeing many more movies.
UPDATE: At Real Climate and other sites, the Warmie Empire begins to strike back and calls the study which is causing all the headlines flawed. One climate model kinda sucked, they say, but other ones are pretty good. Listen, they tweak the computer climate models to get as close to reality as possible as reality rears its ugly head in satellite measurements. But no matter how well the tweaking goes, the computer models are not evidence of global warming--the measurement is. I think the measurement is a little suspect due to poor sightings of the instruments and the loss of a lot of high latitude stations in the past two decades or so, but it's probably warmed a bit in fits and starts over the past 120 years. There is no doubt that we are taking the sequestered CO2 in fossil fuels and injecting it into the atmosphere at a rapid rate so that some of the recent warming is human caused. The good news is the asymptotic reaction to doubling the CO2. (See graph). Most of the effect of CO2 on the atmosphere was present at the mythical pre-industrial level of 280 and when we get to double that, in the 22nd Century, the effect will be very much the same as what happened in the 2oth Century, a gentle 1 degree rise. The growing seasons in Canada and Siberia become longer. Difficult to get people to sacrifice life as we know it, or sacrifice at all, based just on that; and the people and governments of about a third of the world, in India and China, say there is no way they are giving up industrialization. Whatever the science shows in the next decade or so, the tipping point alarmist moment--we have to do something radical now to save the planet--has passed. The Warmie alarmists failed. Utterly.
I think they are beginning to realize that.
Well, here's an Iowa class battleship 9 gun salvo on the Warmie cause. As measured by NASA satellites over the past decade plus, the atmosphere of our fair planet puts off far more heat, and at a sooner rate, than the Warmie climate models envision. Let's put that in clearer terms. The only thing that
The models indeed suck and much more heat is escaping than any of them 'predict', thus, there is no warming currently as even Warmie high priests have grudgingly conceded. There was never enough warming from a mere doubling of CO2 possible to alarm the masses and cause them to go all Luddite and joyfully return to the happy, halcyon days of pre-industry. Even in Warmie theory, the most likely change a doubling of CO2 would have caused is a 1.38 degrees Celsius of warming. (See chart). So the Warmies invented a positive feedback mechanism of additional humidity and warming cirrus clouds which would take that 1.38 degrees and multiply it by 1.2 to 4 times. The trouble for the Warmies is that there is no positive feedback mechanism and their models, which depended on it, are bunk.
There may not be a whole lot more to write about on this subject. I'll have to start seeing many more movies.
UPDATE: At Real Climate and other sites, the Warmie Empire begins to strike back and calls the study which is causing all the headlines flawed. One climate model kinda sucked, they say, but other ones are pretty good. Listen, they tweak the computer climate models to get as close to reality as possible as reality rears its ugly head in satellite measurements. But no matter how well the tweaking goes, the computer models are not evidence of global warming--the measurement is. I think the measurement is a little suspect due to poor sightings of the instruments and the loss of a lot of high latitude stations in the past two decades or so, but it's probably warmed a bit in fits and starts over the past 120 years. There is no doubt that we are taking the sequestered CO2 in fossil fuels and injecting it into the atmosphere at a rapid rate so that some of the recent warming is human caused. The good news is the asymptotic reaction to doubling the CO2. (See graph). Most of the effect of CO2 on the atmosphere was present at the mythical pre-industrial level of 280 and when we get to double that, in the 22nd Century, the effect will be very much the same as what happened in the 2oth Century, a gentle 1 degree rise. The growing seasons in Canada and Siberia become longer. Difficult to get people to sacrifice life as we know it, or sacrifice at all, based just on that; and the people and governments of about a third of the world, in India and China, say there is no way they are giving up industrialization. Whatever the science shows in the next decade or so, the tipping point alarmist moment--we have to do something radical now to save the planet--has passed. The Warmie alarmists failed. Utterly.
I think they are beginning to realize that.
Labels: Global Warming Hoax: Catastrophic Model Failure
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 7:40 AM 
