Tuesday, February 15, 2011


News From the AGW Front

After years below 100, the 10.7 cm flux density of the sun has arched up to 113 (the number ranges from 64 to 268--the lower the number the quieter the sun), and the first X class solar flare since of the start of the new cycle is now raining down on us. I have no real idea what an X class solar flare is but it's noteworthy. The consistently revised downward predictions of cycle 24 sunspot numbers might not have to be revised down again. The more sunspots, the warmer it is here on Earth. Cycle 24 is now predicted to be low vis a vis the last several cycles, so the reliable sunspot number prediction says it will get colder yet.

The Northern Ocean sea ice is about a million square kilometers below the 1979-2008 "normal" average. So it's down about the size of Egypt, but more than two standard deviations below the purported baseline. Of the 14 distinct areas in the Arctic, however, only 4 are really seriously below average--three of them front the Northern Atlantic (St. Lawrence; Newfoundland/Baffin Island; and Greenland Sea). The other is the Sea of Okhotsk, south of Kamchatka for all you Risk fans.

But as we were chided when we Deniers noted the rapid recovery in sea ice area after the 2007 big melt, area only tells part of the story, the other component is sea ice thickness. Here's a chart of the ice thickness in Feb. 2008 compared to now, Feb. 2011. As you can see, the thickness is up substantially and thus the ice volume is up as well, over 25%. So the Warmies all decry the lack of four year ice (4 meters thick) and will until 2013, when the recovery from 2007 is five years old and there is much more four year/4 meter ice.

The predictors of an ice free Summer Arctic Ocean within a few years (or decades) are looking to sound ever more foolish.

I'm going to a Warmie lecture this Thursday. I'll report back.


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