Saturday, March 13, 2010
Political Prediction --- Healthcare Reform
But will it pass? There are certainly 51 votes in the Senate, willng to break the rules to avoid a filibuster. The only thing that could cause it to fail now is the moral courage of the handfull of pro-life Democrats in the House. Whom am I kidding? It will pass. The blogfather Hewitt is admitting it will pass. The intrade prediction market is at 61, down from a 65 high, saying it is very likely to pass. The smart money thinks it will probably pass. (Of course, the same markets show the likelihood of the Democrats holding on to the House in 2010 is at 56--down from a high of 87 just three months ago--and with no flattening of the trend line down). It will pass and it will be a disaster for this country. Way to go, Democrats.
Labels: Political Predictions; ObamaCare
Don't believe me? Remember how Reagan said he would get rid of the Dept of Education by folding it back into HEW, and then never did? Remember how Newt said he would zero out funding for the arts and PBS and never could?
If Reagan could never get rid of a pipsqueak dept like Education, and Newt could never end funding for PBS, what makes us think we can reverse something far larger like healthcare?
So in the end the progressives win because they will have fundamentally changed our country.