Saturday, February 06, 2010


Andrew Sullivan is Batshit Crazy

In the early years of my reading blogs, I always read Andrew Sullivan and even e-mailed him a few times (and he responded). I quit reading him a few years ago and lately, I'm told, he has a theory that Sarah Palin's 5th child, Trig, is actually her daughter Bristol's first child. He seems to believe this still and rails on Mrs. Palin for giving a different (and factually accurate) account in her book, which I'm reading, Going Rogue. The Ace of Spades has a funny take down of Sullivan's lunacy linked above, but let's take a look at how likely it is that Andrew Sullivan's latest idée fixe is the truth.

It is more likely that babies with Trisomy 21 (aka Downs Syndrome) will be born to older mothers. The incidence is 1/1000 for mothers less than 30, 1/60 for mothers over 42. Sarah Palin was 44 when Trig, who has Downs, was born and Bristol was 18. You make the call.

The average length of human gestation is 280 days and the minimum time it takes to ovulate after giving birth is 3 weeks. This latter period can be extended to months with breast feeding. Trig was born 4/18/2008 and Tripp Johnston, Bristol's first child (and, according to crazy Andy, her second) was born 254 days later on 12/28/08. Trig was 6 lbs, 2 oz at birth (normal for Downs babies); Tripp was 7 lbs, 7 oz. The average birth weight in America is 7 pounds, eight oz. Both babies were considered full term births.

So 254 is 47 days short of 301 (the 280 of a full term gestation plus the minimum three weeks it takes human females to ovulate after birth). That's over a month and a half short of the necessary time requirements, particularly with two full term babies.

Of course Andrew Sullivan is a raving homosexual (not that there's anything wrong with that) with absolutely no firsthand knowledge regarding procreative sex and the mysteries of the womb, so perhaps he can be forgiven his fantasy, but all the information in this little posting is available easily on-line. One would think a graduate of Oxford (even from Magdalen college) can add and subtract.

Sticking with his theory, long-shot to begin with, after the birth of Tripp is indeed an indication of a very disturbed mind. Plain old nuts, in my book.


Was it Trig or Tripp that was born in Kenya and is a secret Muslim?

That's what the lunatic fringe of my party believes about President Obama. You can't fool me. It is strange he won't release records. What I want to see are his grades at Occidental and Columbia. Why can't anyone see those? But he was born in Hon. HI and is a Rev. Wright influenced Christian. Just plain nuts to think otherwise. And what do the Birthers want, President Biden? Shudder.
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