Here is a graph of reality compared to IPCC computer models, in pink. Not that close in my opinion. Because there is a diminishing return on CO2 warming as it increases in the atmosphere, such warming as was predicted is physically impossible from rising CO2 alone and a three plus degree temperature rise is only possible if, as the Warmies assume, a positive feedback system will kick in because of the slight warming caused by green house gasses and make it much warmer than doubling CO2 could possibly do. However, back on planet Earth, there is no positive feedback assisting the warming. There appears to be the opposite, a negative feedback or mollifying system, which is making it not ever warmer; and indeed, for a short period lately, it has actually gotten colder worldwide. I believe the negative feedback system is clouds at a certain level which, for various reasons, will continue to cool us for a while now. Additionally, the sun will likely have fewer sunspots during the next 11 year period, if it ever actually begins, and our World will get colder still. In any event, something not in the IPCC computer models
has already taken us off their prediction line on the chart and it's only 9 years into the new century.
Here is a chart of what the Warmie AGW theory predicts is now happening about 10 km. up over the tropics because of the CO2 et al.
in the atmosphere there. The green house gasses, mainly CO2, should be creating a hot spot there as they do their thing, absorbing heat. Just below that is a chart showing a composite of actual weather balloon and satellite measurement of the troposphere temperatures recently. No signature hot spot is visible. The hot spot is a sine qua non
for the Warmie theory so it looks like non
to me. Those are two big strikes against AGW in my book.
If the sea stops rising at 3mm per year despite a continued steady increase in CO2 and the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice remains at the 19 year normal (as it is just now
) over the next five years, that will be the final strike and even true believers will have a hard time explaining away the reality. (As they are now).
Labels: Global Warming: Disputed Metrics, IPCC Computer Models Not Working Out