Saturday, February 28, 2009


Shaking the Paradigm

There are times when you are so wrong, that not only do you doubt your apparent lapse of judgment, but also the paradigm of belief under which you were operating. One such episode was guessing the Oscars earlier this month. I was so sure that Mickey Rourke was going to take best actor. He had made a comeback and a reasonably good movie after years in the B and strange movie wastelands. Hollywood usually eats that up with a spoon. Besides Sean Penn had won one a few years ago for the remarkably depressing Mystic River. I have to doubt now 'the comeback' versus 'earlier winner' components to my prediction system. I have to raise the 'politically active' and 'the gay pride' components even higher than they were. It was a harsh blow but not quite a shattering of my belief system vis a vis the Oscars.

Then there's this. President Obama has gained popularity after a month of horrible decisions and lifting the moderate mask off his socialist dream he has for America. And he gets more popular.
OK now I have to raise the 'fool all the people some of the time' component and reiterate my firm belief that American education peaked in 1964 and it has been a long, long slide since then, past a tipping point where we can rely on an informed electorate rather than on the semi-morons Jay Leno and Sean Hannity find wandering around the streets of our larger cities. OK, the majority of people are much less informed than I had previously imagined. Lesson learned.

Not that I'm bitter, of course.


I think it's too early to freak out, Roger. Obama's at that very early point in his presidency where a single speech can move his approval rating a few points.

But like his promises, his popularity has an expiration date.
Perhaps this will shake your paragigm... but I doubt it.
Better article that mentions the accelerated snow in the interior that you mentioned.

In terms of heat, I thought you had once said that the increased snow on the cap was actually a result of general warming. So there might be your answer.
You can't fool all of the people all of the time, right Eric? Cold freakin' comfort now.
Thanks for the articles, Mike. The satellite data regarding Antarctic sea ice shows a clear upward trend in the yearly formation of sea ice since 1979. One would think that the sea would necessarily have to be ever colder to allow that trend. The satellite measurement of Antarctic air temperatures shows the same trend (although it has a more gentle slope). Again I ask, if the sea and air is getting ever cooler, where is the heat for this reported, increased ice cap melting coming from? I will look into this and post if I have the time.
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