Monday, September 22, 2008
Thought of the Day
Labels: Walt Meier quote
Also, Hansen had three scenarios. The one that you refer too was the, for lack of a better word, "catastrophic" scenario (no volcanic eruptions to introduce a cooling effect, which we had with Mt Pinatubo starting in the early 90's). His middle scenario is actually the one that most closely reflects the current trend line. He did pretty damn good for the paper that was published in 1988.
Here's the link to the abstract and the PDF for the full paper is located therein.
"Dead wrong" is as far from accurate as you can get ;-)
Large enough for anyone to read. What about Scenario C could possibly be higher than reality. I don't know the source of your graph, but I'll suggest to you that if you are going to call Hansen's predictions dead wrong that you don't use anything but the one from his paper as evidence. If you do, then you have no credibility.
Therefore, when you look at the graph and I ask you which scenario most closely matches the current global temperature trend line. What is your answer? If I believe that you haven't looked at it, then I get to accuse you of sticking your fingers in your ears because you apparently don't want to see the evidence.
If you don't see that scenario B is the closest one to the current trend line of global temperatures, then you are unable to read a graph.
To answer your question, not much CAN happen between now and 2013 to change the trend line, but global temps would have to go down every year from now until then to make an impact on the trend that has been happening since we've been keeping these records. So IF they do go down every year until then, I'll re-evaluate my position.
Even if, as you claim, that the temps of the new millennium were "flat" with a "sharp decline", you will need several years of that to start to reverse the current trend.