Thursday, September 25, 2008



The Intrade betting predictions market has Obama retrieving 3/4 of his former 20 point lead. That's not totally unexpected, but it's not fun. The normal polls are all over the place but I still think they are unreliable. We just don't know who is going to show up November 4. The most worrisome are the ones where Obama is over 50%, like here in Colorado. Oh, man.

And how can Obama do poorly against McCain in the debates if McCain isn't there? McCain has been going all populist and, well, being pretty foolish, from time to time since Black Thursday. Andrew Cuomo?

There's a good reason he has lost some ground.

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I'm glad you noticed the Cuomo thing. Pretty funny to have people claiming that the entire financial crisis is Cuomo's fault, and then have McCain endorse him for the position of SEC chairman.

Can you say, "out of touch?"
By the way, here is one reason that polls are getting more and more unreliable.

Obama's lead could be a lot more than polls indicate.
The charitable explanation of the Cuomo endorsement was 'temporary insanity.' Thanks for the link. I'll think about that. On the other hand, Kerry was even further ahead of Bush in the polls at this time in 2004 and he lost big time.
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