Tuesday, June 03, 2008
The Science Behind Sunspot Prediction
Some scientists, and a growing number of them, are a little concerned that the sunspot Cycle 23 is lasting way too long, much longer than the average just over 11 years (usually a sign of lower numbers to come). The magnetic emanations from the sun have, according to the vaunted Canadian Space Agency remained low (in the upper 60s when 64 is as low as the number ever gets) and that means a 'quiet' sun, usually, as well. I guess we're officially still in Cycle 23. There was a Cycle 24 sunspot near the first of the year but since then there have only been a few late Cycle 23 ones and a few very tiny and short lasting ones which could have been Cycle 24, but it's hard to tell. The sun is clear today.
Now there is this paper. I can't pretend credibly to understand each and every word, but I can read what Anthony Watt says is the bottom line prediction. It's not good. And I say that not as a lover of warm weather, I'm not, but because the suffering and cost from even a 'mini' ice age is much worse than from the opposite amount of warming.