Thursday, May 15, 2008


Why Computer Climate Models May Not Support Our Full Reliance

We have heard that computer models of climate from now into the future show dire predictions of global warming. Secretary Kempthorne seems to have heard the predictions. We also know that the World is far more complex than the computer models. When the time clock is set back on the models and they predict the last century, for example, they always get it wrong and do not track what is the historical record. Indeed, the models don't rely at all on historical temperature records. And the mistakes are apparently not random, with some mistakes cooler than it was and some warmer, they are almost all warmer.

Sometimes the modeling mistake is 3.5 times what really happened

So of course we should believe them vis a vis the growing population of Polar Bears. No possibility of modeling overstatement there.


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