Thursday, May 01, 2008


Revising the Predictions

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts out a series of report in which it discusses what has happened recently and what it has high confidence will happen in the future based on computer modeling. Here is the revised 2007 Synthesis Report in pdf form, which means I can't copy out sections and reproduce them here for comment.

OK. Let's look at p. 30. Where it says that recent increases in sea level are consistent with global warming. It says that the sea has risen 3.1 mm from '93 to '03 and about 57% of that rise was from thermal expansion. I'm OK with the percentage (which is less than I thought) but why is it talking about that particular period of time? Does it have anything to do with the full implementation of the Argo system, about 3100 robot buoys all over the world's oceans which measure salinity and temperature from the surface to half a mile or so down below the surface? Here is the only article on the subject I could find which mentions the mean global ocean temperature. It says that the seas have actually cooled over the past 5 years (Oh, back to 2003 then). So the thermal expansion which is nearly 2/3 of the supposed rise in sea level hasn't existed for the past half decade. Indeed, the ocean has actuall cooled. Any mention in the IPCC of the necessary sea level drop? No, None. Indeed, the mentioned supporting data is very selective. For example, sea ice loss in the North is heralded as support while the record rise in sea ice in the South is ignored (again on p. 30).

But what about the predictions for global warming for the next 92 years? Well, from figure 3.2 on p. 46 we can see three predictions for 2000-2100 based on three different computer models. the predictions range from a 1 degree C rise to a 2.6 degree C rise for the century. There is no prediction of a .64 degree C temperature drop world wide in 2007 and no prediction of falling temperatures between 2007 and 2015. But temperatures did fall world wide in 2007 by that amount.

And falling temperatures for the next 7 to 10 years is just what some scientists are now predicting.
(The article reveals the following: The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998.)

To call the IPCC reports science is to reduce the word 'science' to meaninglessness.


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