Monday, February 18, 2008


Sunspot Predictions Versus Reality

Here is a chart of the number of sunspots for the last cycle. I know this is boring, but bear with me. Look at the right border. See the three dotted lines? Those are the high, low and median estimates of sun spots for most of the rest of 2007, including November and December, 2007, during which there were supposed to be between 10 and 35 sunspots. Here is the actual number of sunspots for that 61 day period: 5. There was a sunspot, No. 10982, in early January, 2008. What number are they on now, here, well past the middle of February, 2008? Well, there was sunspot 10983 at the end of January but no new one in February, yet. Let's put the predictions on the chart, from April, 2007, next to the predictions in December, 2006. Stunningly wrong, at least so far. It's not over of course and the sun could go all spotty tomorrow for all I know, but predictions, even about things that go in regular cycles, have ways of making the predictors look stupid.

It's the same with climate predictors too.


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