Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Iranian Nuclear Weapons
One thing we lawyer types can do is judge the severity of the risk vis a vis the likelihood of the occurrence. I know for sure, for example, that I will cut myself shaving again sometime. I will not bleed to death because of it. I'm not worried. In another instance, it would be horrible if a malevolent alien race destroyed the Earth, but that's not going to happen. So again I don't worry about it. Likewise, it would be horrible if Iran developed nuclear weapons and used a few against Israel. So what is the likelihood?
There's a lot of discussion about the National Intelligence Estimates regarding Iran's nuclear weapon program. The spies seem to be pretty sure Iran stopped the program when we finished Gulf War II in 2003 and it's possible they never have restarted it.
Does the CIA help put out the NIE? What is the CIA's 'batting average' regarding foreign nations nuclear weapon's programs? It's like 0. They've never been right. Nearly every Foreign nuclear explosion (other than Great Britain's and France's or the one the Commies announced ahead of time) have been news to the CIA. They admit that after Gulf War I, Saddam's nuclear weapons program was much more advanced than they thought.
What do the Israelis say? They were able to locate, raid and destroy a nuclear weapons fabrication point in Syria just a few weeks ago. I'll go with them.
And they say Iran is doing just what Ahmadinejad says they are doing, making weapons grade uranium in order to make a few bombs to destroy Israel.
There's a lot of discussion about the National Intelligence Estimates regarding Iran's nuclear weapon program. The spies seem to be pretty sure Iran stopped the program when we finished Gulf War II in 2003 and it's possible they never have restarted it.
Does the CIA help put out the NIE? What is the CIA's 'batting average' regarding foreign nations nuclear weapon's programs? It's like 0. They've never been right. Nearly every Foreign nuclear explosion (other than Great Britain's and France's or the one the Commies announced ahead of time) have been news to the CIA. They admit that after Gulf War I, Saddam's nuclear weapons program was much more advanced than they thought.
What do the Israelis say? They were able to locate, raid and destroy a nuclear weapons fabrication point in Syria just a few weeks ago. I'll go with them.
And they say Iran is doing just what Ahmadinejad says they are doing, making weapons grade uranium in order to make a few bombs to destroy Israel.
Labels: NIE
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 4:54 PM 
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Interestingly, there was no NIE regarding Syria's nuke facilities, that Israel recently made a parking lot.
In another instance, it would be horrible if a malevolent alien race destroyed the Earth, but that's not going to happen.
Gee, I don't know...the Democrats sure are trying awfully hard.
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Gee, I don't know...the Democrats sure are trying awfully hard.
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