Friday, November 09, 2007


Pelosi and the Alternative Reality Democrats

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Nob Hill) yesterday proved her inability to see reality vis a vis her soon to be 15th unsuccessful time the House Democrats have attempted to put a troop reduction time table in an appropriation bill for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. She repeated Harry Reid's non-prophetic words from April that the surge change in tactics is "...not working," and immediately channeled her Viet Nam War years to say: It's a war without end. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. We must reverse it.


Well, I think anyone can see her point IF they ignore all of the following:

1) The reduction in attacks on coalition forces, including Iraqi forces and policemen;
2) The reduction in Sunni on Shia (and vice versa) violence;
3) The defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq and the clearing of it from Baghdad;
4) The slowing of private militia fighting;
5) The ever increasing effectiveness of Iraqi forces;
6) The ever increasing defection of former insurgents to the side of the still somewhat feckless national government in Iraq;
7) The repatriation of Iraqis who have fled Baghdad and Iraq itself;
8) The near absolute pacification of al Anbar, Nineveh and Salahaddin provinces (which once were considered 'lost' but now are so quiet that my cousin in the Marines there since Summer declares that he is very, very bored); and,
9) The ever increasing number of tips from concerned local citizens which result in military success.

Yeah, if you ignore all that stuff, you could say the surge is not working and there is no hope for anything but endless war in Iraq.

But those under reported good things in Iraq are getting harder and harder to ignore, which is why many are looking on that sort of standard Democratic rhetoric as delusional.

Care to bet if this latest attempt to manage the war through the purse strings wins the 223 votes the last failing surrender effort got?


Unlike the Democrats, I will acknowledge that progress has been made since last summer.

However, I would caution you to curb your enthusiasm with the following observations.

Anbar: The tribal leaders are now asking for billions of dollars for their cooperation. I wonder what happens when they don't get it.

Al Qaeda: Can I quote you on that "AQI has been defeated?" I suspect you will live to regret those words if so.

Sectarian violence: If (and that is a big if) the country (and Baghdad especially) has been partitioned so well that sectarian violence is simply not as feasible (as your linked article suggests) as it was, expect the real battle between al Hakim and al Sadr to be right around the corner.

Displacement: The article talks about 3,000 families return home (presumably to their now cleansed neighborhoods; their side won). This is very small news in light of the nearly 4 million Iraqis that are still displaced inside and outside of the country. I've estimates that as many as 46,000 people have returned home. That is about 1% of the refugees.

If this conflict is to have a happy ending, I'd say we are still in about the 2nd inning. I really don't see the US spilling nearly five times more blood and treasure in Iraq than what has been spilled so far.

Sorry, but I just don't see it.
I think the tribal leaders will get plenty of money. I am jumping on an early trned line (which I warn Warmies not to do) because people are different from natural forces. Yon, whom I quoted, was quoting an Iraqi about the 'defeat' of AQI. We'll see the outcomes soon enough. I think more seventh inning stretch than just completed the first inning. Thanks for your continued comments. My girlfriend and I are talking about a trip to Prague and Budapest this summer. We'll take you and your wife to dinner if you're in town.
It has been great exchanging ideas over the last couple of years.

I would be even better to meet you in person. I look forward to it.

Oh, and let's hope you are right.
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