XDA

I am a bit more ambivalent about this than you appear to be. I frankly don't know the best way to handle Iran right now. One thing that is really off the table is a land invasion like we did in Iraq - we might have had the manpower to do so at the time of Gulf War I, but Clinton's Peace Dividend took that option off the table, even if we weren't already stretched thin in Iraq and Afganistan. And, I am sure that you have heard ad nauseum about the pros and cons of an air attack.

The problem is that there are a number of different forces apparently at work right now in Iran, and some of them are in our favor. For example, it appears that a large percentage of the population likes Americans, the U.S., etc., and esp. those too young to remember the late Shah. Plus, those running the country are becoming ever more unpopular even with their Shiite countrymen (and of course, as we found out this last week, the minority Sunni there are really unhappy).

Another force against the current rulers is coming from Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and his clerical followers. Apparently, there was a schism in Shia Islam between the Ayatollah Khomeini and Sistani's mentor, Ayatollah Khoei. Khomeni pushed a more Sunni oriented Shia Islam, with the clerics running the show. Khoei (and now Sistani) took a more traditional view.

Part of what has happened since Saddam Hussein was ousted is that Iranian pilgrims are now able to travel to Najaf, etc. The result has been a rapidly growing influence of Sistani in Iran, and apparently a desire by a lot of Iranian Shia for the older form of their religion, as evidenced apparently by pictures of Shiite heros (including Sistani and Khoei) becoming much more prevalent in Iran, as well as the traditional Shia shrines becoming much more frequented, etc.

All this together appears to me to be a lot of pressure on the rulers of Iran right now by the Shia masses to return to a more classic version of their religion where the clerics are not running the country, etc.

Oh, and we found out a week or so ago that the country is running out of energy - hard to fathom with all that oil and gas. But apparently to keep the masses happy, gas is heavily subsidized, and with any subsidized commodity, demand soon outstrips supply. I saw a figure of 40% or so of government revenues going for this purpose...

Of course, on the other side, we have a bunch of hardliners mostly running the country, and a president who may be trying to expedite the return of the occluded 12th Iman. And, they are apparently aiding our enemies in Iraq right now, including apparently arming their mortal enemies, al Qaeda.

So, to some extent, we have a race against time - whether Iran will get (and use) the bomb before its current leaders get the axe.

Unfortunately, my bet right now is on them getting the bomb first. And that is worrisome. (Even more worrisome, of course, to the Israelis who might be the recipients of such). But just as worrisome is how they can screw up our mission in Iraq.
 

Bruce Hayden, CC '72?

Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
I am taking the under on the Iranian government. I'll wager a bottle of champagne.

Regards