Wednesday, December 27, 2006


Rare Sports Post

I was actually at the miracle Bengals game last Sunday and had a great time, but I was not fooled for a minute, even after the 99 yard drive, that the Broncos are a playoff worthy team. My friend Tony says that when the Bengal receiver scored what should have been the tying touchdown, he mocked us with a phony Mile-Hi salute to the stands. Do not p-o the football gods, he says. The Bengals proceeded to muff the point after snap and the game was pretty much history. Oh, we had to get a lucky (oh no, not again) penalty to negate a Bengal successful onside kickoff. If I really had to make the choice, I'd take lucky over good any day and it looks like Shanahan did too.

The Nougats snagged Alan Iverson from Philadelphia (and believe me that does not begin to start to think about repaying Philadelphia for taking Forsberg from us). I asked guys who actually watch the NBA if Denver's coach is renowned for taming troubled players and making them great. They all just laughed. Iverson's been playing pretty well though, I hear.

Finally, I watched the relatively healthy and rested Avalanche lose to a seriously injury depleted and just played last night Dallas Stars, 5-4. Remember when I wrote that the Avs were ready to surge into the new year and peak at just the right time. Never mind. Goalie of the future Jose Theodore had to be pulled in the third. Man, was that loss a bitter little pill to swallow.

AFC west going pretty much as predicted. San Diego wins it, Denver comes in second. KC third, and we all know about the Raiders.

Look for Denver to exit the playoffs very early, perhaps even before they start.
Couldn't agree more but your team isn't doing so well either.
When Forsberg left, I wasn't particularly unhappy. For the price he is getting, he is injured much of the time.

Adam Foote, now ....

I'm actually pretty happy about the
Broncos right now, and not just because I have tickets for Sunday's game (must remember to pack cotton balls for the bleeding noses). Cutler has been coming along faster than I feared, and bringing several new pass targets with him.

I don't expect that Denver will be in the Super Bowl, but I wouldn't be thrilled to have them for an opponent in the playoffs. I'd rate them as an underdog to each AFC division winner, but not a huge underdog. And Cutler looks like the sort of quarterback who can win a game pretty well by himself upon occasion. By contrast, the same team with the good Jake would still be a slight points underdog, but a much greater odds underdog, since there wasn't the huge upside.
Hope apparently springs eternal in the Sundseth household. I agree with you about Foote (but he's been swallowed up in the black hole that is the CBJ) Hope the game is great Sunday.
If you can't have hope up until your team is mathematically eliminated, you're not much of a fan*. 8-)

FWIW, I put their odds of beating any of the teams they're likely to play at around 35-40%. If you do the numbers on that basis, that gives Denver optimistically a 2.5% chance to win the Super Bowl. With Plummer, I'd have put the probability at around 30% per game, which works out to around a 1% chance.

I'll take a 150% improvement in probability any day. And if you want to offer me 40:1, I'd probably put down a little money, too. (If you think that number is too high, then you must rate Denver's chances at higher than 40% per game, which would make you even more of an optimist than I am.)

* Lest we forget, that's an abbreviation for "fanatic".
Like I said,

We all know about the Raiders.

I could see Denver winning one playoff game, max.
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