Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Rare Sports Post
The Nougats snagged Alan Iverson from Philadelphia (and believe me that does not begin to start to think about repaying Philadelphia for taking Forsberg from us). I asked guys who actually watch the NBA if Denver's coach is renowned for taming troubled players and making them great. They all just laughed. Iverson's been playing pretty well though, I hear.
Finally, I watched the relatively healthy and rested Avalanche lose to a seriously injury depleted and just played last night Dallas Stars, 5-4. Remember when I wrote that the Avs were ready to surge into the new year and peak at just the right time. Never mind. Goalie of the future Jose Theodore had to be pulled in the third. Man, was that loss a bitter little pill to swallow.
Look for Denver to exit the playoffs very early, perhaps even before they start.
Adam Foote, now ....
I'm actually pretty happy about the
Broncos right now, and not just because I have tickets for Sunday's game (must remember to pack cotton balls for the bleeding noses). Cutler has been coming along faster than I feared, and bringing several new pass targets with him.
I don't expect that Denver will be in the Super Bowl, but I wouldn't be thrilled to have them for an opponent in the playoffs. I'd rate them as an underdog to each AFC division winner, but not a huge underdog. And Cutler looks like the sort of quarterback who can win a game pretty well by himself upon occasion. By contrast, the same team with the good Jake would still be a slight points underdog, but a much greater odds underdog, since there wasn't the huge upside.
FWIW, I put their odds of beating any of the teams they're likely to play at around 35-40%. If you do the numbers on that basis, that gives Denver optimistically a 2.5% chance to win the Super Bowl. With Plummer, I'd have put the probability at around 30% per game, which works out to around a 1% chance.
I'll take a 150% improvement in probability any day. And if you want to offer me 40:1, I'd probably put down a little money, too. (If you think that number is too high, then you must rate Denver's chances at higher than 40% per game, which would make you even more of an optimist than I am.)
* Lest we forget, that's an abbreviation for "fanatic".