Thursday, May 11, 2006
Iran in the Near Future
Back when Time was a pretty thick magazine which I read regularly, it had from time to time a center section which was pages and pages of advertising about one thing. It may still, for all I know. Back in the late 70s the big center advertisement section was once about a nation--Iran. I can't recall all the details but, for example, Iran was 5th largest steel producer in the World back then and there were other really good things. The future was bright.
Then the Shah got cancer, Jimmy Carter betrayed him, there was an Islamic revolution and eventually the perception that you ought not to mess with the Americans for your own safety vanished in some parts of the Muslim World. Iran became a theocracy, a pariah nation for warlike acts against American embassy personnel and the main supporter for Islamicist terrorism. Things got worse. Iraq invaded and caused 400,000 battle deaths in an 8 year war. Kharma's a bitch.
Now Iran seems intent on becoming a nuclear suicide bomber. That is, once Israel is convinced that Iran has a nuclear weapon it can deliver, there will be airstrikes which may be nuclear. If Iran explodes a nuclear weapon over a city in Israel, there will almost certainly be massive nuclear retaliation. The thought that, if the Soviets did something really bad 30 years ago, that action would trigger an overwhelming American counterstrike, kept the Soviets from doing anything really bad, until there were no more Soviets. I'm not sure that idea will constrain Iranian theocrats.
Even if we never start nuclear bombing, Iran has an Achilles heel--although the country has a lot of oil wells, it doesn't have sufficient refineries and has been importing refined products since 1982. An embargo of gasoline and diesel will bring what's left of their once vibrant economy to its knees. And we can enforce such an embargo with our Air Force and Navy and never fire a shot. But again, if the threat of Israeli annihilating retaliation is not enough to deter them, then a fuel embargo will have no effect whatsoever.
I don't like the look of things, Fred.
Then the Shah got cancer, Jimmy Carter betrayed him, there was an Islamic revolution and eventually the perception that you ought not to mess with the Americans for your own safety vanished in some parts of the Muslim World. Iran became a theocracy, a pariah nation for warlike acts against American embassy personnel and the main supporter for Islamicist terrorism. Things got worse. Iraq invaded and caused 400,000 battle deaths in an 8 year war. Kharma's a bitch.
Now Iran seems intent on becoming a nuclear suicide bomber. That is, once Israel is convinced that Iran has a nuclear weapon it can deliver, there will be airstrikes which may be nuclear. If Iran explodes a nuclear weapon over a city in Israel, there will almost certainly be massive nuclear retaliation. The thought that, if the Soviets did something really bad 30 years ago, that action would trigger an overwhelming American counterstrike, kept the Soviets from doing anything really bad, until there were no more Soviets. I'm not sure that idea will constrain Iranian theocrats.
Even if we never start nuclear bombing, Iran has an Achilles heel--although the country has a lot of oil wells, it doesn't have sufficient refineries and has been importing refined products since 1982. An embargo of gasoline and diesel will bring what's left of their once vibrant economy to its knees. And we can enforce such an embargo with our Air Force and Navy and never fire a shot. But again, if the threat of Israeli annihilating retaliation is not enough to deter them, then a fuel embargo will have no effect whatsoever.
I don't like the look of things, Fred.
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 12:06 AM 
