Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Polling
I just conducted a poll at least as valid as the one John Zogby did in Iraq recently. I only asked one question: What is the capitol of South Africa? The majority answered Johannesburg (actually the majority didn't know). So, now do South African government employees have to relocate from Pretoria, Capetown and (to a lesser degree) Bloemfontein to the big city (but definitely not the capitol) of Johannesburg? Of course not.
I guess polls about what people plan to do, like vote for a candidate, are reasonable and helpful. Polls about satisfaction are pretty worthless unless it leads to who they will vote for. But polls about facts--Will there be a Civil War in Iraq? What is the capitol of South Africa? are just complete wastes of time. Could the mere belief of a majority make the thing true or the prediction more likely. NO. Why ask them then?
Ann Coulter has a slightly more sophisticated look at the irrelevance of polls.
I guess polls about what people plan to do, like vote for a candidate, are reasonable and helpful. Polls about satisfaction are pretty worthless unless it leads to who they will vote for. But polls about facts--Will there be a Civil War in Iraq? What is the capitol of South Africa? are just complete wastes of time. Could the mere belief of a majority make the thing true or the prediction more likely. NO. Why ask them then?
Ann Coulter has a slightly more sophisticated look at the irrelevance of polls.
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 6:44 PM 
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In fact, some of us are beginning to loathe Ann Coulter. Her shrillness is not bablnced by the fact that she is semi attractive. Some of us view constant bashing of liberals and the use of "MSM" and denigrating the "liberal press" as boring. Her point about polls being useless nmay be valid but it gets lost in her other agenda.
# posted by 
: 9:09 AM
: 9:09 AM
Here Here!
She is so partisan and venomous that her credibility is compromised, at least in my view.
Kind of cute though.
She is so partisan and venomous that her credibility is compromised, at least in my view.
Kind of cute though.
Ann writes: "Democrats have gotten a majority vote in a national election only two times since FDR was president" - LBJ and Carter. Maybe my memory is playing tricks, but didn't a chap called Gore win the majority vote?
Well, no Mark, According to this official site: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm
Gore got 48.38% of the vote (just under 60 million votes) That's a plurality, not a majority. I was worried about Truman, but it turns out he only got 49.9% of the vote because of the votes for Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace.
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Gore got 48.38% of the vote (just under 60 million votes) That's a plurality, not a majority. I was worried about Truman, but it turns out he only got 49.9% of the vote because of the votes for Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace.
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