Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Political Triumph in Iraq
The Iraqis (Kurds and Shiites) trying to get the Sunni minority involved in the political (as opposed to the terrorist) struggle to create a democratic and stable Iraq have hammered out a last minute deal which brings the Sunnis in in a big way. One Sunni Arab party now supports the new Iraqi Constitution. I doubt this guy to the left has the newest version, but he certainly has a lot of them.
I can't stress enough how good this news is. The political solution to the Iraq insurgency is now just two months away and no longer in serious doubt.
The naysayers who were predicting imminent civil war are wrong, yet again.
# posted by Roger Fraley @ 7:00 PM 
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Well, to be fair, you can't know they are wrong. Let's see what happens, eh? Even if there is no civil war, that may be because the naysayers shook the negoiators into actions that caused its avoidance. It did seem that the federalist provisions of the draft gave the Sunnis a pretty raw deal that one can understand them being reluctant to accept. If a breakthrough has been made in this area, let's rejoice - I'm sure the naysayers will too!
The whole point of political blogging is to look at a snapshot of an imperfectly seen present and then try to see as far into the future as possible and then talk about the importance of the snapshot in light of what you think it will mean to the future. I am recording what I think of some of the various reported events (expecially the news from Iraq). Of course I don't know what will happen in the future, but we'll, as you say, see; and on some server, somewhere will be the record of my hit or miss predictions and admitted imperfect analysis. I am, of course, right on this one though, and if you run across a naysayer (here in America) rejoicing as the political solution to the Iraqi terrorism problem sets up like Roman concrete, let me know. I'm not wasting my time with too broad a search. The Sunnis are a minority group in Iraq who abused the Sunni/Kurd majority since you Brits buggered off from that 'volcano of ingratitude' in the 20s. They deserve a little raw deal (but not so bad they want to blow up people).
We`re a long way from being out of the woods yet, Roger.
I never like to count chickens until they are hatched.
There`s still a bit to go yet.
Everyone wants peace, no-one wants the situation to deteriorate, but let`s not kid ourselves on that all is well until it actually is.
I never like to count chickens until they are hatched.
There`s still a bit to go yet.
Everyone wants peace, no-one wants the situation to deteriorate, but let`s not kid ourselves on that all is well until it actually is.
I'm certainly not saying that no one else is going to die or that the lamb will lie down with the lion; but the outcome in Iraq, even if it is years away, is no longer in doubt. It will be a stable Islamic republic. And the Iraqis will remember the good guys who helped them achieve it. And I should have said Shiite/Kurd majority. Sorry.
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