Friday, April 30, 2010
The Quiet Sun
There is nearly no correlation between, in this order, increased CO2 concentration and world temperature rise. In the opposite order there is very good correlation--the world's average temperature rises and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere increases. There is, however, a remarkable correlation between sun spots and world average temperature. So many of us who care about the real source of climate change follow the sunspot numbers. Here's the straight dope from SpaceWeather.com,
Last year, 260 days were without sun spots (71 %). This year only 21 days (17%) have had no visible sun spots. Most of them were recently, nearly two weeks worth, and the thing that broke the chain, was a micro tiny sun spot yesterday which barely lasted 15 hours. The normal "resting time" between peaks of sun spot activity, the solar minimum period, is 485 days. Our minimum has lasted 791 days.
The 10 cm radio flux density from the sun is now 75. This flux density number ranges between 64 and 267; so the lower range fits the inactivity of very recently. It had peaked in the low 90s just a few months ago.
So, are we in a Maunder like minimum which will lead to big temperature drops as with the Little Ice Age beginning in the 1600s? Unlikely. What we may well see is a very short lived minimum, like the Dalton minimum, which resulted in the Russian winter which doomed Napoleon and the Grand Armee. But the sun could become very active very quickly.
The magnitude of solar magnetism, which results in sun spots, has been decreasing lately. If it declines below 1500 gauss, the solar scientists say there will be no sun spots. That could be bad.
Last year, 260 days were without sun spots (71 %). This year only 21 days (17%) have had no visible sun spots. Most of them were recently, nearly two weeks worth, and the thing that broke the chain, was a micro tiny sun spot yesterday which barely lasted 15 hours. The normal "resting time" between peaks of sun spot activity, the solar minimum period, is 485 days. Our minimum has lasted 791 days.
The 10 cm radio flux density from the sun is now 75. This flux density number ranges between 64 and 267; so the lower range fits the inactivity of very recently. It had peaked in the low 90s just a few months ago.
So, are we in a Maunder like minimum which will lead to big temperature drops as with the Little Ice Age beginning in the 1600s? Unlikely. What we may well see is a very short lived minimum, like the Dalton minimum, which resulted in the Russian winter which doomed Napoleon and the Grand Armee. But the sun could become very active very quickly.
The magnitude of solar magnetism, which results in sun spots, has been decreasing lately. If it declines below 1500 gauss, the solar scientists say there will be no sun spots. That could be bad.
Labels: Global Warming; Sun Spots
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Anthropogenic Global Warming--The Problem of Perspective
A lot of Deniers have pointed out that the CO2-temperature charts have some congruence but a reversal of cause and effect. However, we also note that on the sun spot-temperature charts, the temperature actually follows the sun spot numbers quite closely. The fewer the number of sun spots the cooler it is here on Earth. Thus, the long minimum of Cycle 23 and the very late start of Cycle 24, has a lot of people predicting a continued cooling, a la the Dalton Minimum in the early 19th Century. The New York Times had today a long and relatively fair coverage of the idea, radical as it seems, that the sun causes heating, and cooling, of our beautiful planet.Here is a near hidden gem, however:
The idea that solar cycles are related to climate is hard to fit with the actual change in energy output from the sun. From solar maximum to solar minimum, the Sun’s energy output drops a minuscule 0.1 percent.
So a .1% drop in energy is minuscule. However, the effect of .038% of the atmosphere (that part which is CO2) is huge and forces the entire system of heating the atmosphere and oceans. Yes, I can see how in a certain (anti-scientific) frame of reference, .1% could be perceived as minuscule and .038% could be perceived as huge. It could happen.
(h/t E.G. at Planet Gore on the NRO)
Labels: Global Warming; Sun Spots
