Wednesday, January 16, 2019
It's Difficult to Predict Things, Especially About the Future
Here is the NASA prediction for sunspot numbers for Cycle 24 (which we're still in) in June 2008. They thought Cycle 24 would have substantially more sunspots than Cycle 23.
Here is a later prediction from June 2015 when we were actually in Cycle 24. As you can see Cycle 24 was quite a bit lower than Cycle 23 which was itself lower than Cycle 22.
Here is what's called a prediction even later, in 2016. You can see it has very little to do with the 2008 actual prediction.
Here is the bulk of the actual Cycle 23. Kinda puny. My prediction is that it's going to be colder for a while.
The average cracked 80 for a very short time. So the actual prediction before the Cycle began was 80% too high. The science, I can assure you, however, is settled and you're a sunspot denier even to think anything different.
Here is a later prediction from June 2015 when we were actually in Cycle 24. As you can see Cycle 24 was quite a bit lower than Cycle 23 which was itself lower than Cycle 22.
Here is what's called a prediction even later, in 2016. You can see it has very little to do with the 2008 actual prediction.
Here is the bulk of the actual Cycle 23. Kinda puny. My prediction is that it's going to be colder for a while.
The average cracked 80 for a very short time. So the actual prediction before the Cycle began was 80% too high. The science, I can assure you, however, is settled and you're a sunspot denier even to think anything different.
Labels: Sunspot Prediction Abject Failure
Sun Dogs
Mix hexagonal shaped, flat ice crystals with light and you get extraordinary beauty.
Labels: Several Arcs, Sun Dogs, Sun Pillar
On the Road To Damascus
